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Slope stability at the Bau Trang area using deterministic, upper and lower bounds, and reliability analyses

Dang Van Phu, Nguyen Thi Mai Suong, Le Xuan Bao, Pham Ngoc Thinh

Inżynieria Mineralna

2025

Vol. 2, no. 1

art. no. 12

The landslide at the sandhills in Bau Ba Lake in 2023 has significantly affected tourism activities in this area. Finding the exact causes and risk failure modes will help quickly come up with solutions to prevent possible landslides in the future. However, the analysis of slope stability is still done in the traditional way of deterministic analysis and has certain limitations. The question is whether or not only the deterministic analysis is enough to assess the slope stability thoroughly. If the slope stability is not analyzed fully and accurately, the solutions proposed will not be feasible and may not be effective in protecting the slope. In order to investigate slope stability in a general and accurate way, this study used the upper and lower bounds method and reliability analysis besides the deterministic analysis. In doing so, the study performed stability analysis for three cross sections, L1, L4, and L8, in the landslide area using the SLOPE/W module. In addition, scenarios of different lake water levels and live load from vehicles and visitors were also considered for analysis. The results show that in the deterministic analysis, the lake water level has a great influence on the stability of the slope, with relative differences in safety factors of around 30%. In the analysis using the lower bound analysis, the safety factor is quite low and smaller than that of the deterministic analysis by about 8%. In addition, the reliability analysis also shows that there are circular slip surfaces with safety factors smaller than those from the deterministic analysis. Another important result is that the slip surfaces with low safety factors from the deterministic analysis, the upper and lower bounds analysis, and the reliability analysis are different in shape and location. Noticeably, the lower bound analysis gives a slip surface that has the smallest safety factor. Thus, only the deterministic analysis might ignore this important issue. The results from this study will be the solid foundation for proposing appropriate solutions to reinforce and protect the sandhills in the Bau Trang area.