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1 Journal of Sustainable Mining

1 2024

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The outburst probability index (Ww) as a new tool in the coal seam outburst hazard forecasting

Dreger Marcin, Celary Piotr

Journal of Sustainable Mining

2024

Vol. 23, iss. 1

55--60

Gas and rock outbursts are one of the most unpredictable natural hazards in Polish and worldwide underground mining. The complexity and unpredictability of this phenomenon make forecasting and underground prevention difficult to achieve. Gas-geodynamic phenomenon occurs in greater intensity in the southern part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB) - close to the Bzie-Czechowice fault zone. The relatively low firmness of coal combined with high methane content and pressure may result in a coal seam outburst. To forecast the gas and rock outburst occurrence, the sorption capacity and gas diffusion parameters are used in Polish coal mining. To provide a new, more direct and helpful tool for outburst hazard occurrence interpretation - an outburst probability index (Ww) has been developed in the CLP-B Laboratory. The components of the simple formula are: methane content, firmness of coal, desorption intensity, effective diffusion coefficient and methane sorption capacity. The four numerical ranges are provided to define the probability of the coal seam outburst occurrence. The new method proposed by the CLP-B Laboratory simplifies the outburst hazard prediction and can be used successfully in the coal mines to foresee the forthcoming danger. The result of the outburst probability index reflects changes in each component, which makes it adequate in long-term outburst research in the new drifting roadways.