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Statistical yielding models of some irrigated vegetable crops in dependence on water use and heat supply

Vozhehova Raisa, Kokovikhin Sergii, Lykhovyd Pavlo V., Balashova Halyna, Lavrynenko Yuriy, Biliaieva Iryna, Markovska Olena

Journal of Water and Land Development

2020

no. 45

190--197

Statistical analysis is helpful for better understanding of the processes which take place in agricultural ecosystems. Particular attention should be paid to the processes of crops’ productivity formation under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors. The goal of our study was to provide new theoretical knowledge about the dependence of vegetable crops’ productivity on water supply and heat income. The study was conducted in the irrigated conditions of the semi-arid cold Steppe zone on the fields of the Institute of Irrigated Agriculture of NAAS, Kherson, Ukraine. We studied the historical data of productivity of three most common in the region vegetable crops: potato, tomato, onion. The crops were cultivated by using the generally accepted in the region agrotechnology. Historical yielding and meteorological data of the period 1990–2016 were used to develop the models of the vegetable crops’ productivity. We used two approaches: development of pair linear models in three categories (“yield – water use”, “yield – sum of the effective air temperatures above 10°C”); development of complex linear regression models taking into account such factors as total water use, and temperature regime during the crops’ vegetation. Pair linear models of the crops’ productivity showed that the highest effect on the yields of potato and onion has the water use index (R2 of 0.9350 and 0.9689, respectively), and on the yield of tomato – temperature regime (R2 of 0.9573). The results of pair analysis were proved by the multiple regression analysis that revealed the same tendencies in the crop yield formation depending on the studied factors.

A Life Factor Approach to the Yield Prediction: a Comparison with a Technological Approach in Reliability and Accuracy

Lykhovyd Pavlo

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2019

Vol. 20, nr 6

177--183

There are a number of various approaches to the development of yield predictive models in agriculture. One of the most popular ones is based on the yield modeling from the parameters of crop cultivation technology. However, there is another view on the yield prediction models, which is based on the use of life factors as yielding parameters. Our study is devoted to the comparison of a conventional technological approach to the yield prediction with a less prevalent approach of life factor based yield modeling. The testing of two approaches was performed by using the yielding data of sweet corn cultivated in the field trials under the drip-irrigated conditions of the Southern Ukraine, under the different technological treatments, viz. plowing depth, nutrition, and crop density. We developed two multiple linear regression models to compare their efficiency in the yielding predictions. One of the models used cultivation technology parameters as the inputs while the other used life factors as the inputs. Life factors were expressed in numeric values by using the following converter: total water consumption of the crop was used as the factor of water, the total sum of positive temperatures was used as the factor of heat, and the total sum of the main nutrients (NPK) available in the soil was used as the factor of nutrition. The results of the study proved an equal accuracy and reliability of the studied models of sweet corn yields, which is obvious from the values of RSQ. RSQ of the both studied regression models was 0.897. However, additional check of the modeling approaches applied in the feed-forward artificial neural network showed that the life factor based model with the RSQ value of 0.953 provided better yield predictions than the technologically based model with the RSQ value of 0.913. Therefore, we concluded that the life factor approach should be preferred to the technological approach in the development of yield predictive models for agriculture.