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Detection of pathological crisis processes in branches of economy (on the example of agriculture of Ukraine)

Pronoza P.

Acta Innovations

2015

no. 17

56--64

The article is devoted to applying the concept of early detection of pathological crisis processes to analyze the dynamics of Ukrainian agriculture development in 2003-2011. The analysis is based on time series of the export, import, production volume, export and import prices for agricultural products, volume of loans and investments. Despite the fact that the only branch that demonstrated the growth of output in 2008-2009 was agriculture, there were observed four years of crisis in agriculture during the period under consideration. The built signal panel and structural and logical model of pathological crisis processes detection in agriculture of Ukraine showed that the leading role was played by the investment balance deficit, reduction of the technological level of exports compared to imports and growth of domestic production credit bubble.