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Identification a priori of wild cards in the context of uncertain events in the modern logistics

Magruk A.

Research in Logistics & Production

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2017

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Vol. 7, No. 3

237--246

EN

The aim of the article is theoretical characterization of wild cards as future surprising events from today's point of view difficult to anticipate, with a low probability of joining, a significant, negative or positive impact. There have been done the definitional analysis with examples and characterized wide range of conceptual substitutes. In addition, it was done and shown a real analysis of the wild cards in practical terms in selected areas of modern logistics, such as: 3D printing, augmented reality, Big Data, cloud logistics, Internet of Things, robotics & automation, self-driving vehicles, as drivers of the fourth industrial revolution. The implementation of these concepts requires appropriate tools of cooperation between the all parties, a new way of joining and merging of systems such as: manufacturing, shipping, transport, logistics, sales channels, service, etc. These phenomena are so new and complex, and therefore uncertain that require in-depth prospective analysis. One of them may be the identification and analysis of potential wild cards.

2

Wild cards methodology for the complex phenomena – such as the Internet of Everything

Magruk A.

Problemy Eksploatacji

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2016

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no. 2

83--93

EN

The main aim of this article is to present characteristics of a new methodology for the identification and analysis of wild cards, using grounded (selected) methodical achievements of future studies, in particular, the Delphi method, SWOT analysis, STEEPVL analysis, and the method of weak signals. The novelty of this approach refers to (1) minimizing the subjectivity effect and (2) using a complex approach to study phenomenon. An additional aim is to characterize the practical application of the new method in analysis for the complex developing phenomenon – the Internet of Everything. This complexity affects the occurrence of many areas of uncertainties. In the author's opinion, the use of a comprehensive analysis of prospective areas whose development is burdened with a high degree of uncertainty will minimize this phenomenon (uncertainty) through multi- preparation for sudden changes. According to the author, by the implementation of the elements of the above-mentioned research approaches, to the methodology of the analysis of the unprecedented events, it is possible to popularize the process of the exploration of wild cards, especially in a Polish (Central European) research environment.

PL

Głównym celem artykułu jest charakterystyka nowatorskiej metodyki identyfikacji i analizy dzikich kart, wykorzystującej wybrany, ugruntowany dorobek metodyczny badań przyszłości – a w szczególności metody delfickiej, analizy SWOT, analizy STEEPVL oraz słabych sygnałów. Nowatorstwo ujęcia na minimalizacji efektu subiektywizmu przy jednoczesnym kompleksowym (zbliżonym do holistycznego) ujęciu badanego zjawiska. W opinii autora poprzez implementację elementów wyżej wymienionych podejść badawczych do metodyki analizy zdarzeń bezprecedensowych możliwe jest spopularyzowanie metody dzikich kart, zwłaszcza w polskim (europejskim) środowisku badawczym. Celem dodatkowym jest charakterystyka praktycznego zastosowania nowej metody poprzez analizę złożonego rozwojowego zjawiska, jakim jest Internet Wszechrzeczy. Złożoność ta wpływa na występowanie bardzo wielu obszarów niepewności. W opinii autora zastosowanie kompleksowych analiz obszarów, których rozwój obarczony jest dużą dozą niepewności, pomoże to zjawisko (niepewności) zminimalizować poprzez przygotowanie się do trudno przewidywalnych zmian.

3

Wild Card as a Phenomenon Cushioning Uncertain Events – Example of Industry 4.0

Magruk A.

Logistics and Transport

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2016

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Vol. 31, No. 3

21--26

EN

The aim of the article is the analysis and characterization of wild cards in both theoretical and practical perspective – in the context of the Industry 4.0. Wild cards are potential future events with a relatively low-probability but high impact on the activity (life, busines, etc.). Despite the high degree of complexity of the process of identifying, analyzing and interpreting this type of phenomena it seems to be indispensable to have a basic and practical knowledge for the analysis of wild cards. This knowledge can be very useful, especially in an environment exposed to exceptional or emergency event. This seems to be particularly important in the future context in the case of new events, burdened with a high degree of uncertainty. Industry 4.0 is a such event, as one of the main areas of the fourth industrial revolution.

4

Słabe Sygnały i Dzikie Karty - Innowacyjne Metody Antycypacyjne

Magruk A.

Ekonomia i Zarządzanie

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2010

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Vol. 2, no. 4

126-136

EN

The article presents a relatively new and innovative research methods in the Polish science environment, i.e. "weak signals" and "wild card" as a creative methods of anticipating an some aspects of uncertain future. There is made general characteristics of the concepts of these methods. These methods are analyzed in the context of the idea of foresight as well as its research methodology. Despite the absence of codified rules for the application of weak signals and wild cards methods, the author also presents own example of the process of identifying weak signals and the wild card, drawing on experience gained in the European project iKnow.