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Forecasting municipal waste accumulation rate and personal consumption expenditures using vector autoregressive (VAR) model

Bień Jurand

Production Engineering Archives

2022

Vol. 28, Iss. 2

150--156

Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is important for the planning, operation and optimization of municipal waste management system. However, it’s not easy task due to dynamic changes in waste volume, its composition or unpredictable factors. Initially, mainly conventional and descriptive statistical models of waste generation forecasting with demographic and socioeconomic factors were used. Methods based on machine learning or artificial intelligence have been widely used in municipal waste projection for several years. This study investigates the trend of municipal waste accumulation rate and its relation to personal consumption expenditures based on the yearly data achieved from Local Data Bank (LDB) driven by Polish Statistical Office. The effect of personal consumption expenditures on the municipal waste accumulation rate was analysed by using the vector autoregressive model (VAR). The results showed that such method can be successfully used for this purpose with an approximate level of 2.3% Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).

Factors of Changes in Waste Management in a Mountain Region of Southern Poland

Przydatek Grzegorz

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2019

Vol. 20, nr 5

86--96

The aim of the work was to analyse the changes in the effectiveness of municipal waste management for the period 2009–2015, in one of the largest counties in the mountainous region of southern Poland. Socio-demographic factors, as well as changes as a result of the implementation of the provisions of Directive 1999/31/WE and Directive 2008/98/EC into Polish legislation, are considered. Over the period of seven years, there was a significant increase in the amount of municipal waste generated in the county of 32%, with a simultaneous increase in the number of inhabitants and a decrease in the number of individuals registered as unemployed. An increase in the amount of waste that is non-selectively collected and the number of properties covered by collections of municipal waste occurred before there were any changes in waste management. However, after the changes, the amount of six types of waste selectively collected (paper and cardboard, plastic, metal, bulky, WEEE) increased, with a significant 40% share of glass waste reference to the selectively collected waste. This may result from the changes in waste management. However, over the whole research period, more than 80% of waste was non-selectively collected, which may result from a lack of ecological awareness.