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1 Kozub M.

1 2005

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Świat XXI wieku : konflikty zbrojne

Kozub M.

Zeszyty Naukowe AON

2005

nr 3(60)

90-101

The end of the bipolar division of the world decreased the threat of nuclear annihilation. Nevertheless, it also triggered dormant contradictions. The world is witnessing armed conflicts that challenge both politicians and military men. Thus a characteristic feature of the 21st century armed conflicts will be their “civilised” character, which means that political tasks will be reached not only as a result of using military power but political, economic and informational ones as well. However, not the use of force but the threat of its use will become a determinant. Armed conflicts will be characteristic for information society and civilisation taking advantage of its possibilities but they will be also subordinated to geo-politics and geo-economy. They will be also waged between non-states or in their interest but, first of all, they will be more complex, multidimensional and will have different forms. Military operations will more often serve to take advantage of opportunities and not to counteract threats. Commanding the troops will be replaced with commanding armed fighting. The role of military and civil integration will increase, as military activities will be more seldom a planned means of politics, more often, however, an effect of escalation in situations of non-military means ineffectiveness. They will be more asymmetrical and indirect, more surprising and difficult to forecast.