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Hellenic air - space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast

Symeonidis Vasileios, Zombanakis George Andrew

Security and Defence Quarterly

2020

Vol. 32, No. 5

7--18

This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive.

Pedestrian rule compliance at signalized intersections in different urban contexts: an observational study

Pratelli Antonio, Lupi Marino, Farina Alessandro, Iannelli Carmela

Transport Problems

2019

T. 14, z. 2

29--41

The purpose of this paper is to examine the rule compliance behavior of pedestrians at signalized intersections located in two different urban contexts in Italy, a tourist context and a typical working urban context, and to highlight if there is any influence, of the specific urban context, on the non-compliance behavior of pedestrians. Digital video camera images are gathered in two different urban contexts and data are processed using automated software, self-written in MatLab. Both test places are located in Tuscany (Italy) and they are only 20 km apart. The tourist, or recreational, context is the beach town of Viareggio. The typical working, or commuter, urban context is the historical city of Lucca. Factors such as age, sex and group size are analyzed. Pearson’s chi-square test has been applied to investigate whether the difference between observed values and expected values of variables is statistically significant. The average crossing speed in tourists is found to be 1.50 m/s and the average 15th percentile is 1.09 m/s, whereas in commuters, the average crossing speed is found to be 1.78 m/s and the average 15th percentile is 1.42 m/s. The obtained results highlight that pedestrians in a tourist urban context are generally more compliant to traffic lights than in a commuter urban context. Moreover, the results point out that pedestrian behavior is highly linked to the urban context, and the obtained results of this exploratory study on pedestrians, in a recreational context as compared to a working one, raise some interesting questions that deserve further research work.