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EN
The search for uranium in Poland began after the World War II and was initially conducted by Russians who in the mid-1950s were replaced by the Polish specialists. The Polish Geological Institute also took part in this research in 1956. In the initial phase of the search, the study was focused on the area of the Sudetes. Later, the research covered the entire territory of Poland using the so-called "parallel research”, which consisted mainly in the analysis of geophysical measurements from all the boreholes performed in Poland, and then the collection of samples from the zones with anomalous radioactivity. In this way, concentrations of uranium were found in the Lower Ordovician Dictyonema Shale of the Podlasie Depression and in the Lower Triassic of the Peribaltic Syneclise. Uranium was also searched in the area of the Carpathians, the Holy Cross Mountains, hard coal deposits of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin and in brown coals and phosphates. Uranium deposits in Poland have not been found and the current concentrations are not of economic value. Research methodology, which was used for uranium prospection in the 1990s, was successfully applied in geoenvironmental study, first of all for establishing post-Chernobyl cesium contamination and for preparing a map of the radon potential of the Sudetes.
EN
In the shadow of discoveries of large deposits of mineral resources in Poland after World War II, intensive exploration works were carried out, but the results of this research did not bring such spectacular effects. Exploration of Zn-Pb deposits conducted in the vicinity of historic deposits of Tarnowskie Góry and Bytom led to documentation of the Zawiercie, Goluchowice and Marciszów deposits. With some successes, exploration works of metal ore deposits in Paleozoic igneous and metamorphic rocks of the NE margin of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin were carried out. In this area, the Myszków Mo-W-Cu mineral deposit was confirmed, representing the porphyry copper genetic type. Moreover, in the area of Mrzyglód, the promising mineralization zone was found, requiring further geological research. The exploration of uranium and rare earth element ores did not lead to documentation of the deposits, nevertheless they made it possible to recognize all geological structures in Poland in terms of the possibility of occurrence of ore deposit occurrence of these metals. The prospecting works for these goals was carried out with a relatively small scale and were limited of the Sudetes, where exploitation took place on a fairly large scale in the past (Zloty Stok, Radzimowice, Klecza-Radomice, Wądroże Wielkie). The gold concentration occurring in the Zechstein Kupferschiefer formation and the porphyry copper mineralisation in NE margin of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin were also studied. The PGI participated in the exploration of mineral resources in marine areas, where besides the hydrocarbon exploration in the Polish economic zone, research on the Baltic polymetallic nodules was carried out, and within the INTEROCEANMETAL consortium the raw material potential of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the Pacific was studied.
EN
The paper presents the concept of forecasting uranium prices on the basis of the uranium deposits exploitation costs. The model for estimating the costs of raw material extraction over time, depending on the supply level sufficient to meet the demand from nuclear power plants, has been developed. The aforementioned costs, given the inelastic demand for uranium, determine the price of this raw material. This allows estimating the future price of uranium on the basis of knowledge of the resource base and the relationships determining changes in parameters characterizing the resources. As these estimates are affected by considerable uncertainty, the study has used a stochastic approach, constructing the precise probability distributions of uncertain parameters. Based on literature analysis, the variables that are correlated with each other have been identified. The model has implemented the identified correlations between variables. A number of assumptions regarding the input data, model limitations, and the relationship between the variables has been adopted. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation, the probability distribution of uranium prices in the coming years until 2050 has been obtained. According to the obtained estimation, uranium prices will remain stable at around 90 USD/kg by 2030. The prices are expected to increase in the next years. It can be assumed that this trend will grow in the future. In 2050, the expected uranium price will be about 130 USD/kg.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono koncepcję prognozowania cen uranu bazującą na kosztach eksploatacji rudy uranowej. Zbudowano model szacowania kosztów wydobycia surowca w czasie w zależności od wielkości podaży będącej odpowiedzią na popyt zgłaszany przez elektrownie jądrowe. Koszty te, przy sztywnym popycie na uran, determinują cenę tego surowca. Pozwala to szacować przyszłe ceny uranu na podstawie wiedzy o bazie zasobowej surowca oraz relacjach warunkujących zmianę parametrów opisujących zasoby. Szacunki takie obarczone są dużą niepewnością, dlatego w badaniach wykorzystano podejście stochastyczne, konstruując rozkłady prawdopodobieństwa wartości niepewnych parametrów. Na podstawie analizy literatury zidentyfikowano zmienne, których wartości są ze sobą skorelowane. W modelu zaimplementowano zidentyfikowane korelacje pomiędzy zmiennymi. Przyjęto szereg założeń dotyczących danych wejściowych, ograniczeń modelu i relacji między zmiennymi. Na podstawie symulacji modelu metodą Monte Carlo uzyskano rozkłady prawdopodobieństwa cen uranu w kolejnych latach aż do 2050 roku. Według uzyskanej prognozy ceny uranu do 2030 roku będą utrzymywały się na stałym poziomie wynoszącym około 90 USD/kg uranu. W kolejnych latach nastąpi wzrost cen, który z czasem będzie przybierał na sile. W 2050 roku oczekiwana wartość ceny uranu wyniesie około 130 USD/kg uranu.
EN
Dr Tadeusz Depciuch (1928–2007), geochemist, mineralogist and economic geologist, longtime employee of the Polish Geological Institute in Warsaw, as the first scientist in Poland who conducted a systematic study on isotopic age of crystalline rocks. In 1966, after preliminary age determinations by Dr Jerzy Borucki, he undertook research of crystalline rocks of the Lower Silesian Block, mainly granites, and subsequently of rocks of the basement of the Polish part of the East European Precambrian Platform penetrated in the 1960s and 1970s, as well as igneous rocks of its cover. He used the K-Ar method, applying its volumetric variety on own-designed equipment. Age determinations allowed identifying the magmatic and metamorphic stages of the development of the crystalline basement evolution, and establishing the stratigraphy. They also played an important role in the research on Variscan plutonism in Lower Silesia. Tadeusz Depciuch participated in prospecting for uranium deposits in the Sudetes, using geochemical methods, and studied the origin of some deposits. In 1974–1984, he worked in Africa (Benin) as a UN expert in the field of geochemistry and economic geology.
PL
Plany rozwoju energetyki jądrowej w Polsce spowodowały kolejną falę zainteresowania występowaniem rud uranu w Polsce. Obecnie uran nie jest traktowany jako surowiec strategiczny i Polska potencjalnie może go pozyskać na zasadach rynkowych. Stąd też niniejsza analiza geologiczno-gospodarcza wystąpień uranu w Polsce nawiązuje ściśle do aktualnych światowych trendów w geologii i gospodarce uranem. Postępujący rozwój technologii odzysku uranu i nacisk na efektywność ekonomiczną przedsięwzięć górniczo-przeróbczych spowodowały, że zainteresowanie budzą przede wszystkim złoża występujące na powierzchni terenu lub na bardzo małych głębokościach (złoża kalkretowe, w granitach/alaskitach i typu metasomatycznego) nadające się do taniej eksploatacji metodą odkrywkową, złoża typu piaskowcowego nadające się do eksploatacji metodą podziemnego ługowania, występujące do głębokości 500 m, oraz bardzo bogate złoża związane z niezgodnościami proterozoicznymi lub polimetaliczne złoża w brekcjach hematytowych. Dotychczas największymi producentami uranu były Kanada i Australia, ale od 2008 r. największym producentem został Kazachstan, dynamicznie rozwijający produkcję żółtego keku ze złóż w piaskowcach metodą ługowania in situ. Także państwa afrykańskie, przede wszystkim Namibia i Niger, oraz Rosja i Uzbekistan należą do poważnych producentów światowych. Natomiast kraje Europy środkowo-zachodniej, będące w przeszłości ważnymi dostawcami uranu (Francja, b. Czechosłowacja, b. NRD) praktycznie zaprzestały wydobycia na swoim terenie, co było spowodowane wyczerpaniem się zasobów złóż z jednej strony i restrykcyjnymi względami środowiskowymi z drugiej. Wystąpienia uranu w Polsce znane są z dolnoordowickich łupków dictyonemowych obniżenia podlaskiego (typ łupków czarnych) i triasowych piaskowców syneklizy perybałtyckiej (złoża typu piaskowcowego). Głębokość występowania, niskie zawartości (łupki ordowiku), bardzo duża zmienność okruszcowania (piaskowce triasu) powodują, że nie mają one złożowego znaczenia i mogą być klasyfikowane co najwyżej jako wystąpienia rud U o niewielkich zasobach o charakterze prognostycznym lub perspektywicznym, występujące w trudnych warunkach geologiczno-górniczych oraz środowiskowo-krajobrazowych.
EN
The latest plans to develop a nuclear energy industry in Poland led to revival of interest in domestic uranium reserves. However, in the meantime uranium lost its status of a strategic raw material which opened possibilities to import that commodity. This makes it necessary to conduct geological-economic analysis of Polish uranium deposits in close reference to current world trends in development and management of uranium resources. The recent developments in technology ot uranium production and market requirements for economic efficiency of mining operations and processing focus on deposits occurring at the surface or shallow depths (calcrete deposits, those related to granites/alaskites or of the metasomatic type) suitable for inexpensive open-pit mining, deposits of the sandstones type at depths not greater than 500 m and suitable for mining by underground leaching, and very rich deposits related to Proterozoic unconformities or hematite breccias. Canada and Australia had been the main uranium producers until 2008 when the first place has been taken over by Kazakhstan thanks to dynamic growth of its production of yellow cake from sandstone uranium deposits mined by in situ leaching. The other leading producers include Namibia, Niger and some other African countries, as well as Russia and Uzbekistan. In turn, several important suppliers from the past (as e.g. France, former Czechoslovakia or former East Germany) have practically ceased out the production due to exhaustion of economic resources and/or environmental restrictions. In Poland uranium mineralization has been found in Lower Ordovician Dictyonema Shale in the Podlasie Depression (deposit of the black shale type) and Triassic Sandstones in the Peribaltic Syneclise (deposit of the sandstone type). The depth of burial combined with low concentrations of uranium (Ordovician Shale) and very high variability in mineralization (Triassic sandstones) make these deposits uneconomic and classifiable as uranium ore occurrences with limited resources and of prognostic or perspective importance, additionally limited by geological-mining conditions and environmental restrictions.
EN
The plans for development of nuclear energy to cover Poland's needs for power raise the question of perspective domestic uranium resources. Prospecting for uranium deposits has been carried out with varying intensity since the end of the 1940s until the 1990s. In the early 1960s these works resulted in discovery of several uranium deposits and occurrences in the Sudetes. Outside of that region, uranium was also found and extracted from the Staszic piryte deposit in Rudki, the Holy Cross Mountains. Total production of uranium in these times in Poland is estimated at about 650 t. A new phase of prospecting was initiated by the Polish Geological Institute in 1956, resulting in discoveries of uranium mineralization in the Ordovician Dictyonema Shales in the Podlasie Depression and the Lower and Middle Triassic sediments in the Peribaltic Syneclise. Moreover, the so-called parallel studies, based on all the available geological and geophysical borehole data from the whole area of Poland, made it possible to analyze distribution of uranium in practically all geological units and formations in the country, especially in the Oligocene Menillite Shales of the Carpathians, the Carboniferous of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin, Zechstein copper-bearing shale and phosphates. The performed analyses, including large-scale geological works aimed at identifying uranium concentrations in the Dictyonema Shale of the Podlasie Depression, Triassic rocks of the Peribaltic Syneclise and Permo-Carboniferous rocks of the Intra-Sudetic Depression, gave us sufficient knowledge for evaluation of possible occurrences of uranium deposits in Poland. Based on our reanalysis of all available data, it may be stated that the Sudetic deposits are of historical importance only. The uranium concentrations known from Upper Carboniferous and Lower Permian rocks (Grzmiąca,Wambierzyce and Okrzeszyn deposits and mineralization shows found in adjacent areas) should be treated as areas with anomalous uranium contents but, unfortunately, without any greater economic significance due to low uranium content, low resources and often observed strong association of uranium with organic matter. The Rajsk deposit and uranium concentrations in the Dictyonema Shale formations (Podlasie Depression) are characterized by low grade uranium mineralization and occurrence at depths of over 400mand, therefore, can not be considered as a potential source of uranium. The Triassic rocks of Peribaltic Syneclise represent a possible uranium deposit of the sandstone type. However, because of large depth of occurrence (over 800 m), usually very high variability in uranium content and location mainly in areas under legal protectiont, these resources should be hypothetical, that is requiring further studies. It may be stated that the degree of recognition of radioactivity of individual geological formations and structures minimizes chances for discovery of any deposits of industrial importance.
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