Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

Ograniczanie wyników

Znaleziono wyników: 1

Liczba wyników na stronie

Wyniki wyszukiwania

Wyszukiwano:
w słowach kluczowych: uncertainty in risk modelling

Sortuj według:

Ogranicz wyniki do:

Wybrane problemy nauki o bezpieczeństwie.

Szopa T.

Zagadnienia Eksploatacji Maszyn

2002

Vol. 37, nr 1

161-181

W artykule zasygnalizowano wybrane ogólne problemy nauki o bezpieczeństwie i współczesne koncepcje ich rozwiązywania, prezentowane w licznych opracowaniach książkowych, artykułach i na konferencjach. Przedstawiono niektóre z nich, takie jak: miary ryzyka, modelowanie strat, wybór metody analizy ryzyka, modelowanie ryzyka, niepewność i niedokładność w modelowaniu ryzyka, rola ekspertów w modelowaniu i analizie ryzyka.

This paper describes some problems of safety science and current conceptions of its solutions. One of such problems is the choice of the quantities which should be treated as the measures of risk and the measures of hazard. An influence on the choice have among other things: a way of loss arising (immediate or long-standing), purpose and precision of intended risk analysis. Each of measures of risk is a function only of hazard measure and reliability measure. Modelling of individual and social losses is other important problem of safety science. It should be stressed that modelling of losses is a base of hazard modelling and in consequence of risk modelling. Modelling of individual human losses arising as a results of long-standing exposure to harmful conditions is especially difficult. Most of the applied models of individual losses have qualitative and discrete nature. Principles of the choice of risk analysis method is also a hard scientific problem. Many methods have been presented in numerous publications and applied in practice. They differ meaningful one another. The choice of right method depend on a number of factors. One of them is the aim of the analysis. The most important aims are: - estimation of risk level, - search for most effective manner to reduce the risk. In many cases of risk analysis the probabilistic methods (PRA) are especially useful. Risk modelling is next scientific problem. A form of risk model depends on risk analysis method that have been selected. Human reliability model is the most important part of each risk model. Construction of human reliability model and locating human factor in safety analysis are difficult problems and they have very strong effect on accuracy of risk analysis results. Computer codes are widely used form of risk models that have quantitative nature. Other important problems of safety science described in this paper are: uncertainties and inaccuracy in risk modelling and the role of experts in modelling and analysis of risk.