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EN
It remains an important challenge to quantitatively describe the corrosion of reinforced concrete (RC) structures under chloride penetration. When considering the uncertainties encountered throughout the life cycle of RC structures exposed to a corrosive environment and evaluating their safety and reliability, the complexity of the problem intensifies. To address these issues, this paper focuses on the time-dependent reliability analysis of corroded RC beams, utilizing the phase-type (PH) fitting method. Initially, a model for the time-dependent reliability of corroded RC beams is established, incorporating the time-dependent chloride diffusion coefficient. Subsequently, a novel PH fitting method is proposed. The effectiveness of this new method is demonstrated through numerical examples. Furthermore, the time-dependent reliability analysis of corroded RC beams is compared using both the PH fitting method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The results reveal that the proposed method can accurately and efficiently deal with time-dependent reliability problems.
EN
The aim of this study is to consider the effects of the variation of shear modulus ratio (G/G0) and damping ratio (ξ) of soil, obtained by a linear iterative method based on the design spectra of seismic codes, the soil environment in terms of uncertainties in shear modulus using Monte Carlo simulations and the foundation damping (ξf) of flexible base for analyses of the Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) problems. A squat structure with circular shallow foundation resting on a soil layer over a homogeneous half-space is studied by using cone model and considering seismic zone effect on structural response. Firstly, after showing the effects of the correction of G and ξ on impedance functions and the responses of soil-foundation-structure system, a study is carried out to compare these effects to those of the modelling of uncertainties in shear modulus as random variations. Secondly, a comparative analysis on design response spectra and base shear forces was carried out for four seismic codes (Algerian Seismic Rules RPA99- 2003, Eurocode 8-2004, International Building Code IBC-2015 and Indian Code IS-1893-2002) considering the three cases of SSI: SSI effects (initial G and ξ), nonlinear SSI (corrected G and ξ) and stochastic SSI (random G with COV = 20%) compared to the fixed base case. Results show that the correction of G and ξ, according to the equivalent nonlinear method in all the cases, leads to a remarkable decrease in peak responses but show a huge amount of reduction in the second study for IBC-2015 and IS-1893-2002 codes compared to the other codes.
3
Content available remote Graph models with multiple Bayesian networks
EN
This paper is devoted to some issues of using multiple Bayesian networks in the various applied problems. Sometimes we deal with applied problems that are difficult to describe with a model that is represented by only one Bayesian network. At the same time, the considered problem may contain blocks with various types of uncertainties that can be well described by multiple Bayesian networks. Even if the problem can be described by only one Bayesian network, the size of this network could be so large that it will be impossible to find the solution with the help of existing software products. In this case, it is better to decompose in some way this large Bayesian network into several smaller ones. However, existing software products are poorly adapted to work with several Bayesian networks simultaneously. In this project, we develop and describe a software product that allows us to work with several Bayesian networks simultaneously.
PL
Artykuł ten jest poświęcony niektórym zagadnieniom związanym z wykorzystaniem szeregu sieci bayesowskich w różnych obszarach zastosowań. Czasami mamy do czynienia z zagadnieniami stosowanymi, które są trudne do opisania za pomocą modelu, który jest reprezentowany przez pojedynczą sieć Bayesa. Jednocześnie, rozważany problem może zawierać bloki z różnymi rodzajami niepewności, które mogą być dobrze opisane przez wiele sieci Bayesa. Nawet jeśli problem może być opisany tylko przez jedną sieć Bayesa, rozmiar tej sieci może być tak duży, że niemożliwe będzie znalezienie rozwiązania przy pomocy istniejącego oprogramowania. W tym przypadku lepiej jest rozłożyć w jakiś sposób tę dużą sieć na kilka mniejszych. Istniejące oprogramowanie jest jednak słabo przystosowane do pracy z kilkoma sieciami jednocześnie. W tym celu opracowaliśmy i opisaliśmy oprogramowanie, które pozwala nam na pracę z kilkoma sieciami Bayesa jednocześnie.
EN
The paper presents the quick look on the possible consequences associated with the spatial data manipulations in air emission inventories. The study area is the Upper Silesian Metropolitan Area, located in the southern part of Poland, where the substantial part of dwellers is supplied with the heat from the district heating system. Is shown that skipping some spatial information, or use of incomplete/obsolete data sets can make the uncertainties of the CO2 emission inventory from the residential sector almost ten times bigger in particular areas. Uncertainties tend to increase along with the number of spatial transformations.
PL
Przedmiotem artykułu jest krótkie przeanalizowanie konsekwencji błędów wynikających z przekształceń niekompletnych (nieaktualnych) danych przestrzennych. Obszarem badawczym jest część Konurbacji Górnośląskiej, której znaczny odsetek mieszkańców jest zaopatrywany w ciepło sieciowe. Wykazano, że pominięcie części informacji przestrzennej albo wykorzystanie niekompletnych danych przestrzennych może prawie dziesięciokrotnie zwiększyć niepewność oszacowania emisji CO2 w wybranych częściach obszaru badawczego.
EN
This paper presents a feasible design for a con- trol algorithm to synthesize an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system-based PID continuous sliding mode control system (ANFIS- PIDCSMC) for adaptive trajectory tracking control of the rigid robot manipulators (RRMs) in the joint space. First, a PID sliding mode control algorithm with sliding surface dynamics-based continuous proportional-integral (PI) control action (PIDSMC-SSDCPI) is presented. The global stability conditions are formulated in terms of Lyapunov full quadratic form such that the robot system output can track the desired reference output. Second, to increase the control system robustness, the PI control action in the PIDSMC- SSDCPI controller is supplanted by an ANFIS control signal to provide a control approach that can be termed adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system-based PID continuous sliding mode control system (ANFIS-PIDCSMC). For the proposed control algorithm, numerical simulations using the dynamic model of RRM with uncertainties and external disturbances show high quality and effectiveness of the adopted control approach in high-speed trajectory tracking control problems. The simulation results that are compared with the results, obtained for the traditional controllers (standalone PID and traditional sliding mode controller (TSMC)), illustrate the fact that the tracking control behavior of the robot system achieves acceptable tracking performance.
EN
The main focus of this paper is to propose a method for prioritizing knowledge and technology factor of firms towards sustainable competitive advantage. The data has been gathered and analyzed from two high tech start-ups in which technology and knowledge play major role in company’s success. The analytical hierarchy model (AHP) is used to determine competitive priorities of the firms. Then knowledge and technology part of sense and respond questionnaire is used to calculate the variability coefficient i.e. the uncertainty caused by technology and knowledge factor. The proposed model is tested in terms of two start-ups. Based on the initial calculation of uncertainties, some improvement plan is proposed and the method is applied again to see if the uncertainty of knowledge and technology decreases. In both cases, the proposed model helped to have a clear and precise improvement plan and led in reduction of uncertainty.
EN
The gripper finger design is a recurring problem in many robotic grasping platforms used in industry. The task of switching the gripper configuration to accommodate for a new batch of objects typically requires engineering expertise, and is a lengthy and costly iterative trial-and-error process. One of the open challenges is the need for the gripper to compensate for uncertainties inherent to the workcell, e.g. due to errors in calibration, inaccurate pose estimation from the vision system, or object deformation. In this paper, we present an analysis of gripper uncertainty compensating capabilities in a sample industrial object grasping scenario for a finger that was designed using an automated simulation-based geometry optimization method (Wolniakowski et al., 2013, 2015). We test the developed gripper with a set of grasps subjected to structured perturbation in a simulation environment and in the real-world setting. We provide a comparison of the data obtained by using both of these approaches. We argue that the strong correspondence observed in results validates the use of dynamic simulation for the gripper finger design and optimization.
EN
European Union legislation requires achievement of good ecological status of European streams and rivers. Because of that, the ecological status of all streams has to be assessed and evaluated. If there is a status identified less than good the remedial measures must be applied. For effective remediation it is necessary to find the cause of worse than good status classification. In urbanized areas is a number of urban drainage outlets with consequences in a necessity of very detailed biomonitoring. Due to time and money demands of such detailed monitoring, it is not possible to make standardized macroinvertebrates field sampling and processing to evaluate the ecological status. Therefore, admissible simplification of field sampling of macroinvertebrates compared to the standard AQEM method was searched for. Both the effect of the subjectivity of multihabitat sampling and the effect of the reduction of the number of sampling points and their uncertainties were studied with help of field experimental work and probabilistic Monte Carlo simulations. It was proved, that a substantial reduction of the number of sampling units (from 20 sampling units requested by European protocol AQEM) is possible only for ASPT and saprobity index (7 sampling units is sufficient) and diversity (9 sampling units is sufficient). A certain reduction (to 14 sampling units) is also possible for the number of individuals, % EPT and IBI index but no reduction can be applied in case of number of taxa and BMWP, where already the replicate 20 unit samples were biased by an unacceptable uncertainty.
PL
Normy legislacyjne Unii Europejskiej (Ramowa Dyrektywa Wodna 2000/60/WE) wymagają osiągnięcia dobrego statusu ekologicznego rzek i strumieni na obszarze państw członkowskich. Z tego też powodu status ekologiczny rzek i strumieni krajów Unii powinien być określony i oceniony. W przypadku gdy status ten zostanie oceniony jako mniej niż dobry, powinny zostać podjęte odpowiednie środki zaradcze. Dla wdrożenia efektywnych działań polepszających stan ekologiczny strumieni należy najpierw zidentyfikować powody, dla których jest on niezadowalający. Na terenie obszarów zurbanizowanych zlokalizowanych jest zwykle wiele wylotów z systemów odprowadzających wody opadowe, które powinny być poddane odpowiednim procedurom biomonitoringu. Ze względu na znaczne nakłady finansowe i czasochłonność nie jest możliwe prowadzenie standardowych procedur pobierania i analizy próbek makrofauny bezkręgowej dla każdego z tak licznych punktów wraz z wymaganą oceną statusu ekologicznego. Stąd też poszukiwane są sposoby dopuszczalnego uproszczenia metod pobierania próbek makrobezkręgowców w odniesieniu do standardowych metod AQEM. W ramach przeprowadzonych badań, za pomocą terenowych prac eksperymentalnych oraz symulacji z wykorzystaniem metody Monte Carlo, analizowano efekty subiektywnego próbkowania siedlisk wielogatunkowych oraz zmniejszenia liczby punktów pobierania próbek powiązane z niepewnością próbkowania. Dowiedziono, że znaczne zmniejszenie liczby próbek (z 20 wymaganych w protokole AQEM) jest możliwe tylko dla indeksu ASPT i indeksu saprobowości (wynosi 7 próbek) oraz indeksu różnorodności (wystarczająca liczba 9 próbek). Zauważalne zmniejszenie liczby (do poziomu 14 próbek) jest możliwe również dla ilości osobników oraz % EPT i indeksu IBI. Jednakże niemożliwe jest zmniejszenie liczby próbek w celu prawidłowego określenia liczby taksonów oraz wartości BMWP, gdzie już w przypadku liczby powtórzeń na poziomie 20 próbek wynik obarczony jest wysokim poziomem niepewności.
EN
The main purpose of the study is an assessment of computational efficiency of selected numerical methods for estimation of vibrational response statistics of a large multi-bearing turbo-generator rotor-shaft system. The effective estimation of the probability distribution of structural responses is essential for robust design optimization and reliability analysis of such systems. The analyzed scatter of responses is caused by random residual unbalances as well as random stiffness and damping parameters of the journal bearings. A proper representation of these uncertain parameters leads to multidimensional stochastic models. Three estimation techniques are compared: Monte Carlo sampling, Latin hypercube sampling and the sparse polynomial chaos expansion method. Based on the estimated values of the first four statistical moments the probability density function of the maximal vibration amplitude is evaluated by the maximal entropy principle method. The method is inherently suited for an accurate representation of the probability density functions with an exponential behavior, which appears to be characteristic for the investigated rotor-shaft responses. Performing multiple numerical tests for a range of sample sizes it was found that the sparse polynomial chaos method provides the best balance between the accuracy and computational effectiveness in estimating the unknown probability distribution of the maximal vibration amplitude.
EN
Methodology for long-term underground lead-zinc mine planning based on fuzzy inventory theory is presented in this paper. We developed a fuzzy stochastic model of inventory control problem for planning lead-zinc ore production under uncertainty. The final purpose of this article is to find the optimal quantity of mined ore that should be stockpiled, in order to enable “feeding” of mineral processing plant in casus when the production in underground mine is interrupted, by using Possibilistic mean value of fuzzy number for defuzzing the fuzzy total annual inventory costs, and by using Extension of the Lagrangian method for solving inequality constrain problem. The different types of costs involved in mined ore inventory problems affect the efficiency of production scheduling. Dynamic nature of lead and zinc metal price is described by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic mean reverting process. The model is illustrated with a numerical example.
PL
W pracy przedstawiono metodologię długoterminowego wydobycia cynku i ołowiu w kopalniach podziemnych z wykorzystaniem podejścia stochastycznego z elementami logiki rozmytej do określania wymaganego poziomu zapasów. Opracowaliśmy model stochastyczny z wykorzystaniem elementów logiki rozmytej do kontroli zapasów w planowaniu wydobycia cynku i ołowiu w warunkach niepewności. Celem końcowym pracy jest określenie optymalnej ilości wydobywanej rudy, którą należy zachować jako zapas tak aby zapewnić odpowiednie jej dostawy do zakładu przeróbczego nawet w przypadku przerwania wydobycia w kopalni podziemnej, opierając się na posybilistycznej wartości średniej liczby rozmytej i wyostrzeniu całkowitych rocznych kosztów zapasów. Wykorzystano także rozszerzenie metody Lagrange’a do rozwiązywania problemu więzów w nierówności. Różnorakie koszty związane ze składowaniem zapasów wydobywanej rudy mają wpływ na wydajność planowanej produkcji. Dynamiczne zmiany cen cynku i ołowiu zostały określone z wykorzystaniem rewersji średniej stochastycznej, w pracy Ornsteina-Uhlenbecka. Zaprezentowano przykład numeryczny jako ilustrację modelu.
11
Content available remote Wspomagana badaniami analiza konstrukcji żelbetonowych za pomocą modeli ST
PL
Podstawowe zalety metody analizy i projektowania konstrukcji z betonu za pomocą modeli kratownicowych (modeli ST) to wizualizacja przebiegu sił wewnętrznych i możliwość analizy obszarów konstrukcji, w których rozkład odkształceń jest nieliniowy. Rozróżnia się trzy podstawowe rodzaje elementów modeli ST: ściskane pręty betonowe (pręty-S), rozciągane zbrojenie (pręty-T) i łączące je węzły. Wytrzymałość betonu na ściskanie w prętach-S i węzłach modeli ST, określona na podstawie zaleceń różnych norm i wyników badań doświadczalnych jest bardzo zróżnicowana. Na podstawie opublikowanych wyników badań doświadczalnych, założeń i wzorów normowych można określić uściślone wartości wytrzymałości na ściskanie betonu w prętach-S i węzłach konstrukcji. W pracy przedstawiono procedury statystycznego określenia parametrów i kalibracji wytrzymałości betonu umożliwiające redukcję niepewności w wynikach analizy konstrukcji za pomocą modeli ST. Rozważania te zilustrowano przykładami obliczeń numerycznych.
EN
Advantages of the strut and tie models are that we can visualize the flow of stresses in reinforced concrete structures and members and that they can be used in regions with nonlinear strain distributions. There are three main elements of ST-models: the compression struts, the tension ties and the nodal zones. The permissible compression stress that can be carried by concrete in struts and nodes recommended by different codes and experimental results given by various authors are inconsistent and controversial. Based on the test results and on assumptions and formulas given by different codes and authors, compressive strength of concrete in struts and nodes regions of a structure can be calibrated. The statistical determination procedures of resistance models is discussed and used to reduce uncertainties n the compressive strength of concrete in struts and nodes of ST models. These procedures are explained by an examples of numerical calculations.
EN
Since indoor radon is considered a potential hazard to health, Rn prevention and mitigation are necessary in certain areas. In this article we address the issues of mapping support and resolution, and conceptually discuss two common ways of generating maps from given information. Further, a short overview is given on the sources of uncertainties which are inevitably associated to every estimate and how to treat them. Finally, some possibilities of generating classified risk indices are outlined, since it is most often necessary to classify regions by estimated hazard.
EN
This paper presents and discusses a conceptual framework for risk assessment and risk management where risk is based on the triplet events, consequences and uncertainties. In addition to risk, the framework highlights the concepts of vulnerability and resilience. An example of the analysis of an LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) plant is included to demonstrate the applicability of the framework. The proposed framework is more general than existing frameworks, for example the traditional Kaplan & Garrick approach, and provides also New perspectives on how to understand and describe uncertainties in a risk assessment and risk management context.
14
Content available Termografia w podczerwieni - błędy i niepewności
PL
W artykule przedstawiono zarys teorii błędów i niepewności występujących podczas bezstykowego pomiaru temperatury a pomocą kamery termowizyjnej. Wskazano na różnicę pomiędzy pojęciami błędu i niepewności. Dodatkowo przeprowadzono dyskusję źródeł powstawania błędów i niepewności w tego typu pomiarach. Zaprezentowano wyniki analizy niepewności metodą Monte Carlo dla wybranych warunków pomiaru. Treść artykułu odnosi się do monografii autorów pod tytułem: "Infrared Thermography - errors and uncertainties" będącej aktualnie w druku w wydawnictwie John Wiley & Sons.
EN
In the paper there is presented an outline of the theory of errors and uncertainties for non-contact temperature measurements with an infrared camera. The paper begins with an introduction. In this section, the model of the infrared camera measurement path is described and a difference between the error and uncertainty concept is pointed out. The next section deals with the errors of infrared thermography measurements [1, 3]. In this section an analysis of the source of errors is conducted as well [3, 4]. The exemplary results of the error analysis regarding with the emissivity errors are shown (Figs. 1-3). In Section 3 an uncertainty analysis of the infrared thermography measurements is performed [1-3, 5-12, 14]. The exemplary results of the uncertainty analysis with the Monte Carlo simulations are presented (Figs. 5, 6). These results are obtained for the commonly occurring measurement conditions. The paper ends with conclusions. In this section the quantitative conclusions from the error and uncertainty analysis are drawn. These conclusions can be very useful for thermographers taking the infrared thermography measurements in practical situations. The contents of this paper refers to the authors' monograph entitled "Infrared Thermography - errors and uncertainties", currently printed in John Wiley & Sons.
15
Content available remote Interval analysis for certified numerical solution of problems in robotics
EN
Interval analysis is a relatively new mathematical tool that allows one to deal with problems that may have to be solved numerically with a computer. Examples of such problems are system solving and global optimization, but numerous other problems may be addressed as well. This approach has the following general advantages: (a) it allows to find solutions of a problem only within some finite domain which make sense as soon as the unknowns in the problem are physical parameters; (b) numerical computer round-off errors are taken into account so that the solutions are guaranteed; (c) it allows one to take into account the uncertainties that are inherent to a physical system. Properties (a) and (c) are of special interest in robotics problems, in which many of the variables are parameters that are measured (i.e., known only up to some bounded errors) while the modeling of the robot is based on parameters that are submitted to uncertainties (e.g., because of manufacturing tolerances). Taking into account these uncertainties is essential for many robotics applications such as medical or space robotics for which safety is a crucial issue. A further inherent property of interval analysis that is of interest for robotics problems is that this approach allows one to deal with the uncertainties that are unavoidable in robotics. Although the basic principles of interval analysis are easy to understand and to implement, this approach will be efficient only if the right heuristics are used and if the problem at hand is formulated appropriately. In this paper we will emphasize various robotics problems that have been solved with interval analysis, many of which are currently beyond the reach of other mathematical approaches.
16
Content available remote Uncertainties on the luminescence ages and anomalous fading
EN
It is well known that some minerals give underestimated luminescence ages due to anomalous fading. The anomalous fading follows a logarithmic decay law characterized by its slope, the socalled fading rate or g-value. Using the fading rate, Huntley and Lamothe (2001) suggested some correction for the fading underestimation of young samples (<40-50 ka). For polymineral fine grains, we observe a fading rate of 0-4%/decade for TL and BL-OSL and 4-6%/decade for IR-OSL. Extending the laboratory observation to archaeological age, the underestimation on the age for 10 ka is estimated to a mean of 5% for TL, 10% for BL-OSL and 45% for IR-OSL. Due to the non-linearity of the Huntley and Lamothe's fading correction, the contribution of the fading to the total uncertainty is estimated by a Monte-Carlo simulation. The inference on dating shows that the uncertainty on the anomalous fading can be a significant term of the combined uncertainty on the age, even for low fading rates.
EN
The emergence of sophisticated formal control synthesis tools provokes important questions for any prospective user: why learn to use these new tools, what will they offer me? In synthesis of magnetic bearing controllers, it turns out that the range of stabilizing controllers is often quite narrow so that the difference between a poor controller and an “optimal” one may be small. Hence, the product of formal control synthesis tools often looks and performs much like what a reasonably clever control engineer would produce by hand. This paper demonstrates that the real value of these tools lies in a) generation of a performance benchmark which can be used to firmly establish the best performance relative to a specification and b) change of design parameter space to one which is relatively easy to maintain and represents a durable investment from an engineering process view.
PL
W artykule opisano sieciowy system informatyczny do obliczania niepewności pomiaru. Obliczenia wykonywane są przy zastosowaniu metody szybkiej transformaty Fouriera, realizującej operację splotu matematycznego funkcji gęstości prawdopodobieństwa błędów, charakteryzujących wielkości wejściowe, elementów składowych równania pomiaru.
EN
The informatical network system to calculate measurement uncertainty is described in the paper. The Fast Fourier Transform Method is applied to calculate convolution of probability density functions, which describe dispersion of errors of quantities forming measurement equation.
PL
W artykule opisano przydatne w praktyce, podstawowe zagadnienia problematyki pomiarów termowizyjnych. Wskazano na problemy związane z metrologiczną interpretacją uzyskanych wyników. Przeanalizowano właściwości kamer krótkofalowych (SWB-Short Wave Band) i długofalowych (LWB - Long Wave band). Opisano także budowę najczęściej obecnie stosowanego do celów badawczych studniowego, fotonowego detektora kwantowego QWIP (Quantum Well Infrared Photon detector) o najwyższej temperaturowej zdolności rozdzielczej. Artykuł stanowi kontynuację prac opublikowanych w numerze 1/2000 PAK.
EN
In the paper there are described practically useful, basic problems of thermovision measurements. Issues connected with metrological interpretation of obtained results are pointed out. Features of both types of cameras: short (SWB - Short Wave Band) and long (LWB - Long Wave Band) are analysed. The structure of the QWIP (Quantum Well Infrared Photon) detector, of the highest temperature resolution, which is now most commonly used for research purposes, is also described. The paper is continuation of works published in the 1/2000 issue of Pomiary Automatyka Kontrola.
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