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Modelowanie zależności pomiędzy wielkością przeładunków kontenerowych w polskich portach morskich a zmiennymi ekonomicznymi

Rozmarynowska M., Smolarek L.

Logistyka

2014

nr 6

1088--1097, CD 2

W artykule tym wykorzystano modele ekonometryczne, aby zbadać zależności pomiędzy wielkościami ekonomicznymi takimi jak: PKB Polski, wartość eksportu i importu Polski a wielkością przeładunków kontenerowych w czterech głównych portach morskich Polski (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Szczecin-Świnoujście). Zależności zbadano osobno dla przeładunków w relacji importowej oraz eksportowej. Modele oceniono pod kątem dopasowania do danych empirycznych oraz ich przydatności do tworzenia prognoz przeładunków.

In this article econometric models have been used to assess the relationship between such economic variables as: Poland’s GD, value of Poland’s export and import and the container throughput in four major Polish seaports (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Szczecin- Świnoujście. The separate models were presented for import and export container traffic. Models were evaluated for their fit to the empirical data and their usefulness for creating throughput forecasts

Technologie transportu kombinowanego : zasady racjonalnego doboru

Nowakowski T., Kwaśniowski S.

Systems : journal of transdisciplinary systems science

2003

Vol. 8, No. 1

220-246

According to the White Paper of EU of 2001, economical growth of 100% is accompanied by commodities transportation growth of 138% and passenger transportation growth of 124%. For year 2010 a growth of transportation of commodity is forecasted of approximately 50 %. Unfortunately, positive economic phenomena are accompanied by not desirable phenomena like not balanced transportation in individual branches of transports and illiquidity of traffic on ways called congestion. Road transport, which spreads out very intensively taking over tasks from other branches of transport, generates enormous social cost. Only costs of congestion are valued in European Union on 200 billion euro. Correction of the situation or at least it moderation is looked out in combined transport. Proper European transport policy, expressed by European Committee of Ministers of Transportation acts is processed to balance the different branches of transport and to slip the transportation from road transport onto railroad transport or water inland transport. Pan-european transport corridors (Creta corridors) and numerous international agreements concerning development of transport infrastructure like AGR, AGC, AGN, AGCT are expression of this operation. Other examples of the policy are structural projects within the confines of packages TEN and TINA. It reports in this policy on development of combined transport. Development of this transport form enables a decrease of costs of transport with maintaining its elasticity and mobility. The very serious problem is to overcome the barrier of time which is caused by necessity of reloading of commodity in combined transport. This loss of time should be compensated by the period of railroad transport. Reserves of time stick in a proper organization of transport and the selection of suitable technology of reloading. In the paper the classification of combined transport technologies is presented. The technologies of Integrated Transport Units ITU reloading (i.e. container, swap body, semi-trailer, truck and trailer) are taken into consideration. To build up general categories of the technologies, existing proposals in studies has been examined. Categories can be for instance built according to: - the type of the terminal (small, medium or big size terminal, hub) with the appropriate performance of the transhipment equipment, - the place of transhipment unit, - the type of transhipped loading units, - unaccompanied or accompanied transport. Basic problems of applicable technologies and conditionality of their application are discussed. The ideas of most curious solutions in this domain are presented. The most important criteria of choices to estimate and choose the technology of transport and reloading are discussed in detail. These criteria concern technology, functioning, economy and ecology. For solving such a composed multi-criterial problem it is necessary to use an expert system. On the basis of formulated criterions and knowledge about 30 technologies of transshipment in combined road-rail transport the expert system is developed. The system is build using EXSYS Professional „shell" system. The system knowledge base is built of a set of rules: IF condition THEN goal; confidence (0, 1). If the confidence factor of the rule is equal 1 it means that the analysed technology fulfil the client demand. The confidence factors are summarized in the process of reasoning for rules stated as truth. The result of the system operation is a ranking list of the technologies according to the user expectations. The system was positively verified. It can be still perfected from the point of view of its opened character and it can be extended by new solutions, which are generated from range of technology of transport specialists.