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1

Impact of information on the number of traffic accidents on the outcome of the forecast

Gorzelańczyk Piotr

Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn

|

2023

|

nr 26(1)

219--230

EN

Every year, more and more vehicles appear on the world's roads. This leads to increased traffic on the roads. Road accidents have become a rapidly growing threat. They cause loss of human life and economic assets. This is due to the rapid growth of the world's human population and the very rapid development of motorization. The main problem in forecasting and analyzing data on the number of traffic accidents is the small size of the dataset that can be used for analysis in this regard. And on the other hand, road accidents cause, globally, millions of deaths and injuries annually is their density in time and space. It is worth noting that the pandemic has reduced the number of traffic accidents. However, the value is still very high. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of information on the number of traffic accidents on the outcome of the forecast. To this end, using historical statistical data, the forecast of the number of traffic accidents for the following years was determined, and how this variability of the input data affects the value of the average percentage error of the forecast was determined. Based on the study, it can be concluded that a smaller number of input data, historical data on the number of accidents, instead of 32 years, 7 years, makes the determination of the forecast of the number of accidents for subsequent years, is at a satisfactory level, the average absolute percentage error of MAPE less than 7%. The article concludes with the determination of the forecast for future years. It is worth noting that the prevailing pandemic distorts the results obtained.

2

Forecasting the number of road accidents in Poland using weather-dependent trend models

Gorzelańczyk Piotr

Technical Sciences / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn

|

2023

|

nr 26(1)

57--76

EN

Every year a very large number of people die on the roads. From year to year, the value decreases, there are still a very high number of them. The pandemic has reduced the number of road accidents, but the value is still very high. For this reason, it is necessary to know under which weather conditions the highest number of road accidents occur, and to know the forecast of accidents according to the prevailing weather conditions for the coming years, in order to be able to do everything possible to minimize the number of road accidents. The purpose of the article is to make a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland depending on the prevailing weather conditions. The research was divided into two parts. The first was the analysis of annual data from the Police statistics on the number of road accidents in Poland in 2001-2021, and on this basis the forecast of the number of road accidents for 2022-2031 was determined. The second part of the research, dealt with monthly data from 2007-2021. Again, the analyzed forecast for the period January 2022-December 2023 was determined. The results of the study indicate that we can still expect a decline in the number of accidents in the coming years, which is particularly evident when analyzing annual data. It is worth noting that the prevailing pandemic distorts the results obtained. The research was conducted in MS Excel, using selected trend models.

3

A distributed big data analytics model for traffic accidents classification and recognition based on SparkMlLib cores

Mallahi Imad El, Riffi Jamal, Tairi Hamid, Ez-Zahout Abderrahmane, Mahraz Mohamed Adnane

Journal of Automation Mobile Robotics and Intelligent Systems

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2022

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Vol. 16, No. 4

62--71

EN

This paper focuses on the issue of big data analytics for traffic accident prediction based on SparkMllib cores; however, Spark’s Machine Learning Pipelines provide a helpful and suitable API that helps to create and tune classification and prediction models to decision-making concerning traffic accidents. Data scientists have recently focused on classification and prediction techniques for traffic accidents; data analytics techniques for feature extraction have also continued to evolve. Analysis of a huge volume of received data requires considerable processing time. Practically, the implementation of such processes in real-time systems requires a high computation speed. Processing speed plays an important role in traffic accident recognition in real-time systems. It requires the use of modern technologies and fast algorithms that increase the acceleration in extracting the feature parameters from traffic accidents. Problems with overclocking during the digital processing of traffic accidents have yet to be completely resolved. Our proposed model is based on advanced processing by the Spark MlLib core. We call on the real-time data streaming API on spark to continuously gather real-time data from multiple external data sources in the form of data streams. Secondly, the data streams are treated as unbound tables. After this, we call the random forest algorithm continuously to extract the feature parameters from a traffic accident. The use of this proposed method makes it possible to increase the speed factor on processors. Experiment results showed that the proposed method successfully extracts the accident features and achieves a seamless classification performance compared to other conventional traffic accident recognition algorithms. Finally, we share all detected accidents with details onto online applications with other users.

4

Analysis of the causes and effects of cyclist-pedestrian accidents in biggest Polish cities

Bauer Marcin, Okraszewska Romanika, Richter Matthias

Archives of Transport

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2021

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Vol. 58, iss. 2

115--135

EN

Traffic incidents between pedestrians and cyclists result in an incomparably smaller number of victims (injured and killed) than accidents between unprotected traffic participants and other vehicles. However, such incidents cannot be underestimated, as in most cases they take place on elements of infrastructure designed for pedestrians and cyclists, and thus negatively affect the sense of safety of users in places where they should not only feel safe but also comfortable. This paper presents an analysis of such traffic incidents, aimed at recognizing the share of pedestrians and cyclists as perpetrators and also victims of accidents. Three research hypotheses were examined: that the type of infrastructure and also light and weather conditions influences the structure of perpetrators and victims, that the proportion of accidents between pedestrians and cyclists caused by pedestrians is increasing, and that the proportion of victims of accidents between pedestrians and cyclists in the pedestrian group is decreasing. Analyses were performed based on the number of traffic incidents involving cyclists and pedestrians in the six largest Polish cities, registered in the Police Accident and Collision Records System. A total of 1,702 incidents involving 1,034 injured and killed people in years 2007-2018 were considered. Each traffic incident was considered individually, taking into account changes in perpetrator and victim proportions depending on the type and purpose of the infrastructure and external conditions, as well as variability of these proportions over subsequent years. The tools of mathematical statistics were used, including – among others - significance tests for independent proportions and Chisquared test for trend. On the basis of the conducted statistical analyses, all research hypothesis were proved. It also confirmed that although the proportions are changing, there are still much more traffic incidents are caused by cyclists, but more victims are in group of pedestrians. The results of the research confirm the need to take action to develop effective mechanisms of mutual interaction between pedestrians and cyclists. Especially in view of the growing bicycle traffic in Polish cities.

5

Zdarzenie drogowe a wypadek przy pracy - wybrana problematyka prawna

Wąsik Natalia

Paragraf na Drodze

|

2020

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Nr 3

29--44

PL

Niniejsza publikacja skupia się na zagadnieniach definicji wypadku przy pracy, wypadku w drodze do pracy i wypadku w drodze z pracy. Poruszona została również problematyka wpływu na niezdolność do prowadzenia pojazdu mechanicznego z przyczyn chorobowych i przełożenia tej okoliczności na uprawnienia odszkodowawcze. Autorka zajęła się również materią zakresu i zasad ubezpieczenia w tzw. podróży służbowej, jak również zagadnieniu kształtowania się uprawnień odszkodowawczych w przypadku naruszenia przez ubezpieczonego przepisów prawa o ruchu drogowym. W pracy poddano analizie orzecznictwo sądowe odnoszące się do ww. problemów, sformułowane na przestrzeni lat 1997-2019.

EN

This publication focuses on the issues of the definition of an accident at work, an accident on the way to work and an accident on the way from work, the issue of the impact of the inability to drive a motor vehicle due to illness and the impact of this circumstance on the right to compensation, matter of coverage and insurance rules in the so-called business travel, as well as the issue of shaping the right to compensation in the event of the insured's violation of traffic law. The paper analyzes court rulings related to the above-mentioned problems, formulated over the years 1997-2019.

6

Określanie prędkości pojazdów na podstawie materiału wideo. Cz. 2

Kosendiak Tomasz

Paragraf na Drodze

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2020

|

Nr 1

41--50

PL

Filmy wykonywane przy użyciu automatycznych, stacjonarnych i mobilnych rejestratorów coraz częściej są materiałem służącym do rekonstrukcji wypadku drogowego. Celem tego artykułu jest przedstawienie sposobu postępowania dla ustalenia prędkości pojazdu wymijającego się z pojazdem wyposażonym w kamerę wideo.

EN

Films made with automatic, stationary and mobile recorders are increasingly often used in road accident reconstruction. The aim of this article is to show how to accurately determine the speed of an oncoming vehicle equipped with a video recorder.

7

Obniżenie odszkodowania z uwagi na przyczynienie się do powstania szkody. Glosa do wyroku Sądu Okręgowego w Sieradzu z dnia 5 lutego 2020 r., sygn. I Ca 6/20

Kurzępa Bolesław

Paragraf na Drodze

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2020

|

Nr 4

7--18

PL

Przedmiotem glosy jest rozstrzygnięcie Sądu Okręgowego w Sieradzu dotyczące problematyki obniżenia odszkodowania na podstawie art. 362 k.c. należnego poszkodowanemu w następstwie kolizji drogowej. Autor omawia okoliczności decydujące o takiej decyzji, między innymi takie, jak porównanie stopnia winy stron, niemożność przypisania winy poszkodowanemu, szczególne okoliczności danego przypadku, specyficzne cechy osobiste.

EN

The commentary concerns the ruling of the Regional Court in Sieradz on the reduction, pursuant Art. 362 Civil Code, of the compensation payable to the person injured in a traffic collision. The author discusses the circumstances leading to such a decision including a comparison of the extent of guilt of the parties, inability to attribute blame to the injured party, specific circumstances of the case, particular personal characteristics.

8

Experimental and modelling research on coach passengers’ safety in frontal impacts

Jamroziak Krzysztof, Joszko Kamil, Wolanski Wojciech, Gzik Marek, Burkacki Michał, Suchon Slawomir, Szarek Arkadiusz, Zielonka Karol

Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering

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2020

|

Vol. 20, no. 3

468--480

EN

Road traffic accidents involving coaches do not happen very often, but they are very dangerous because they affect a large number of passengers. Coaches (or intercity buses) are not equipped with safety belt harnesses. Valid regulations do not impose any obligation on coach manufacturers to provide intercity buses with either two- or three-point safety belts. This fact may result from the unawareness of risks and injuries that might befall the passengers with no safety belts during accidents. That is the reason why this work aims to compare the aftermath of coach accidents with no safety belts and the ones with safety belts. A detailed aim of this research is to analyse the results of dynamic loads during a frontal impact exerted on coach passengers travelling with and without (two- and three-point) safety belts. This objective was achieved by performing experimental studies and modelling which focused on the process of dynamic load transfer on the human body during a traffic accident. The research was conducted parallel on an adult and a child. The equivalent of a 50th percentile male was a hybrid III dummy (M50), whereas a child at the age of about 10 was represented by a P10 dummy. A numerical model was generated and verified in experimental testing in the scope of kinematics. Also, the comparison of the recorded courses of forces, acceleration, and moments was conducted. The results obtained from the tests were analyzed regarding the injury criteria for head, neck, and thorax. It was observed that both for the two-point safety system and the lack of safety belts, there were high values of acceleration recorded in the centre of gravity of the head. On the basis of the investigations conducted, it was ascertained that only a three-point safety belt system ensures the satisfaction of all injury criteria within admissible standards both in the case of criteria defined in the rules no. 80 and the rules no. 94 determined by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. It is the three-point safety belt system which should be obligatory in all intercity buses.

9

Koszty wypadków w transporcie drogowym

Koreń Bartosz, Przondziono Krzysztof

Transport Przemysłowy i Maszyny Robocze

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2019

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Nr 3

102--105

PL

W artykule skupiono uwagę na problemie, jakim są koszty wypadków w transporcie drogowym. Została podana definicja wypadku drogowego i scharakteryzowane zostały przyczyny oraz skutki zdarzeń drogowych. Zawarto również statystyki dotyczące wypadków drogowych w Polsce. W celu określenia rzeczywistych kosztów wypadków podany został sposób obliczania tych kosztów.

EN

The article focuses on the problem of costs of accidents in road transport. The definition of a traffic accident was given, and the causes and consequences of road accidents were characterized. Statistics of road accidents in Poland are also included. In order to determine the actual costs of accidents, the method of calculating these costs is given.

10

The application of reliability reallocation model in traffic safety analysis on rural roads

Matović Boško, Jovanović Dragan, Bačkalić Todor, Bačkalić Svetlana, Pljakić Miloš

Transport Problems

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2019

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T. 14, z. 1

115--125

EN

The number of accidents on rural roads still represents a higher percentage of accidents than those occurring on built-up areas and motorways. Many countries are working on the definition and implementation of strategies that relate to the improvement of traffic safety on rural roads. This paper presents an approach to the analysis of traffic safety and the frequency of traffic accidents. The developed model is based on reliability theory and the application of the reliability reallocation model on data concerning traffic accidents that have occurred on rural roads. To test the model, a state road made up of 20 sections of a total length of 255 km was selected. The analysis of traffic safety on the observed road covers the period between the years 2005 and 2013 (this period is divided into two intervals 2005–2009 and 2010–2013). Following the basic analyses of traffic safety that are positioned in a space-time coordinate system, the next step is the reliability analysis and the ranking of the section. In this paper, the reallocation method was observed from the aspect of the reduction in accident frequency by 10% and the application of the ARINC apportionment technique.

11

Actions in situations threatening other people declared by the candidates for Military University of Land Forces

Kaluzny Ryszard, Marian Magdalena, Mitula Magdalena

Scientific Journal of the Military University of Land Forces

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2019

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Vol. 51, No. 4(194)

646--656

EN

The authors present the results of research on the declared readiness and ways of helping people who are in situations threatening their health or life. This research aimed to acquire knowledge about candidates for the Military University of Land Forces (secondary school graduates), about their activities and behavior in emergencies. The study included 89 people (47 women and 42 men) selected randomly from among 1100 candidates applying for admission to the University. The results of the research show that the student record book at the Wroclaw Military University is desired – in the vast majority – by empathic and friendly candidates who are willing to provide effective assistance other people in threatening situations.

PL

Autorzy prezentują wyniki badań informujące o deklarowanej gotowości i o sposobach niesienia pomocy ludziom, znajdującym się w sytuacjach zagrażających ich zdrowiu lub życiu. Celem tego badania jest pozyskanie wiedzy o kandydatach do Akademii Wojsk Lądowych (absolwentach szkół średnich), o ich aktywności i zachowaniach w sytuacjach kryzysowych. Badaniem objęto 89 osób (47 kobiet i 42 mężczyzn) wybranych losowo spośród 1100 kandydatów ubiegających się o przyjęcie do akademii. Wyniki badań dowodzą, że o indeks we wrocławskiej uczelni wojskowej zabiegają – w znakomitej większości – kandydaci empatyczni, życzliwi, w sytuacjach zagrażających innym ludziom skłonni do skutecznej pomocy.

12

Bezpieczeństwo podczas transportu materiałów niebezpiecznych w Polsce

Pecyna Anna, Krzysiak Zbigniew, Zarajczyk Janusz, Buczaj Agnieszka, Kobus Zbigniew, Pieniak Daniel

Przemysł Chemiczny

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2019

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T. 98, nr 10

1517--1521

13

Z badań nad zależnością między energią zderzenia a deformacją pojazdu

Bilík Martin, Bucsuházy Kateřina, Kostíková Martina, Mikulec Roman, Moravcová Pavlína

Paragraf na Drodze

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2019

|

Nr 2

45--61

PL

Analiza deformacji pojazdu, bądź energii deformacji powstałej w wyniku zderzenia, stanowi jeden z zasadniczych elementów analizy wypadku drogowego. Celem artykułu jest prezentacja oraz ocena różnych metod dokumentowania powypadkowych deformacji pojazdu. Artykuł opisuje również warunki zastosowania poszczególnych metod oraz poziom ich skomplikowania. Na konkretnych przykładach opisany został proces oceny zakresu deformacji pojazdu, z wykorzystaniem określonych metod. Analiza wykazała związek pomiędzy energią kinetyczną pojazdu, powstałymi odkształceniami pojazdu oraz wiekiem pojazdu.

EN

The analysis of deformation, or impact induced energy of deformation, is one of the essential elements of road accident reconstruction. The aim of the article is to present and evaluate various methods of documentation of vehicle post-collision deformation. The article also describes the conditions for the application of particular methods and the level of their complexity. The provided study cases serve to show the procedure of vehicle deformation range assessment by means of certain methods. The analysis has indicated the relationship between the vehicle kinetic energy, vehicle deformation and age.

14

Wypadek, w którym śmierć poniosła rowerzystka. Analiza przypadku

Ważny Andrzej

Paragraf na Drodze

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2019

|

Nr 1

39--53

PL

Tematem artykułu jest analiza wypadku drogowego, polegającego na zderzeniu samochodu osobowego z prawidłowo poruszającą się rowerzystką. W wypadku tym rowerzystka poniosła śmierć. O spowodowanie tego wypadku oskarżona została kierująca samochodem. Zdaniem autora, dowody wskazujące na winę kierującej samochodem nie budzą wątpliwości. Jego zdaniem, podkreślenia wymaga rzetelność opinii biegłego, na co zwrócił uwagę rozpoznający sprawę sąd.

EN

The article presents an analysis of a traffic accident in which a car collided with a cyclist who was riding correctly. The cyclist was killed in the accident. The car driver was accused of the accident. In the author’s opinion, the evidence indicating the car driver’s guilt does not raise any doubts. What should be emphasised is the solidity of the expert witness’s opinion, which was noted by the court.

15

Odrzut wzdłużny rowerzysty

Ciępka Piotr, Reza Adam

Paragraf na Drodze

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2019

|

Nr 6

71--78

PL

W artykule przedstawiono analizę odrzutu wzdłużnego rowerzysty w zależności od prędkości kolizyjnej. Podstawą do wykonania tej analizy były wyniki uzyskane podczas testów zderzeniowych i analiza rzeczywistych wypadków. Autorzy zwracają uwagę na duży rozrzut wyników, który nie daje możliwości jednoznacznego ustalenia prędkości kolizyjnej pojazdu na podstawie znanej wartości odrzutu wzdłużnego rowerzysty. W zależności od zakładanej niepewności można jednak uzyskać określony przedział prędkości kolizyjnej samochodu, a dalsze jego zawężenie może być zrealizowane tylko w połączeniu z innymi metodami rekonstrukcyjnymi lub przez wykonanie testu zderzeniowego.

EN

An analysis of throw distance of cyclist depending on the collision speed is presented. The analysis was based on the results of crash tests and real-life accidents. The authors emphasize a significant scatter of results, which makes it impossible to identify the vehicle collision speed based on the known throw distance. Considering an assumed uncertainty, however, a certain range of the collision speed can be obtained. It can be further narrowed down only in the combination with other reconstruction methods or by performing a crash test.

16

Road safety on the example of the city of Bytom

Matuszak Zbigniew, Nowak Agnieszka, Żabińska Iwona, Martínez de Osés Francesc Xavier

Archiwum Motoryzacji

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2019

|

Vol. 83, nr 1

43--57

EN

National Road Safety Program 2013-2020 assumes to reduce fatalities by half and seriously injured by 40% from 2010 to 2020. It means that no more than 2,000 people per year should die on Polish roads and no more than 6,900 people should suffer serious injuries in traffic accidents. The experience of other European Union countries with improving road safety gives hope that these goals are still realistic, but there is a need to intensify the activities carried out in this area. In Poland, more and more institutions are taking part in the process of improving road safety: state institutions, nongovernmental organizations, local governments, enterprises, scientific and research institutions, the media and many others. The study presents the problem of road safety in the city of Bytom on the basis of its analysis in the years 2013-2017. It discusses the types of road accidents and their classification. Moreover, the paper describes the issues illustrating the situation on roads that have a particular impact on the safety level of road users, among others, the number of road accidents, reasons for their occurrence, the consequences and groups of perpetrators of accidents. It also describes actions and initiatives taken to improve road safety in the city of Bytom.

17

Prediction of traffic accidents by using neural network

Růžička J., Bělinová Z., Korec V., Cikhardtová K., Tichý T.

Archives of Transport System Telematics

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2019

|

Vol. 12, iss. 4

22--26

EN

The prediction of traffic accidents in urban networks is one of the key future theme in the areas of traffic control and navigation. Early identification of the risk of a traffic accident can lead to an increase in the safety and smoothness of road transport. Neural networks belong to the expert methods for modeling of complex systems. The issue of their use in the transport sector is scientifically quite progressive. The article describes the design of prediction model based on available traffic data from town Uherské Hradiště. Traffic data was collected from many sources, e.g. junction detectors, meteorological stations or traffic accident portal. Appropriate parameters for the model were selected from the traffic data. The model was then tested on a 2-month data sample. The aim of the article is to confirm the suitability of using neural networks to predict traffic accidents.

18

Szacowanie wartości parametru EES dla pojazdu o nieznanych parametrach sztywności

Coufal T.

Paragraf na Drodze

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2018

|

Nr 2

51--59

PL

W artykule omówiono możliwości oszacowania wartości parametru EES (Energy Equivalent Speed) dla nietypowych pojazdów, w przypadkach gdy wartości tego parametru nie można uzyskać przy użyciu powszechnie dostępnych metod stosowanych w praktyce analizy wypadków drogowych.

EN

The article describes the methodology of EES (Energy Equivalent Speed) determination for atypical vehicles for which parameter EES is not available in tools for traffic accident analysis used by forensic experts.

19

Zastosowania dysków sygnalizacyjnych do oznaczania miejsc prowadzenia akcji ratowniczej oraz miejsc niebezpiecznych (wypadków, awarii, przeszkód) w celu poprawy bezpieczeństwa

Chmieliński M., Mocek C., Mocek M.

Autobusy : technika, eksploatacja, systemy transportowe

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2018

|

R. 19, nr 6

78--82, CD

PL

W artykule zaprezentowane zostały problemy poprawy bezpieczeństwa z wykorzystaniem sygnalizacji podczas wyznaczania tymczasowej drogi ewakuacji lub miejsca wypadku w ruchu drogowym. Zaprezentowano wybrane wyroby wpływające na poprawę bezpieczeństwa podczas tego typu zdarzeń. Zwrócono uwagę na często zdarzające się przypadki braku oświetlenia w takich sytuacjach, jak oznaczania miejsc prowadzenia akcji ratowniczej, oznaczania miejsc niebezpiecznych (wypadków, awarii, przeszkód) oraz wyznaczania tymczasowej drogi ewakuacyjnej. Dlatego zdaniem autorów niniejszego artykułu dyski sygnalizacyjne scharakteryzowane w niniejszej publikacji z powodzeniem mogą też służyć w ww. sytuacjach przez co mogą wpłynąć pozytywnie na poprawę bezpieczeństwa.

EN

The article presents the problems of improving safety with the use of signaling signals during the designation of a temporary escape route or the place of an accident in road traffic. Selected products influencing the improvement of safety during this type of events were presented. It has been pointed out that there are often cases of lack of lighting in situations such as marking locations for rescue operations, marking dangerous places (accidents, breakdowns, obstacles) and designating a temporary escape route. Therefore, according to the authors of this article, signaling disks characterized in this publication can also beused in the above-mentioned. situations can have a positive effect on improving safety.

20

Wpływ warunków meteorologicznych na skutki uwolnienia chloru w wyniku wypadku drogowego

Brzozowska L., Niesyto M.

Autobusy : technika, eksploatacja, systemy transportowe

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2018

|

R. 19, nr 6

62--67, CD

PL

W artykule przedstawiono wpływ warunków meteorologicznych i szorstkości aerodynamicznej podłoża na rozprzestrzenianie się substancji niebezpiecznej, wysoce toksycznej – chloru. Przeprowadzono symulacje w programie ALOHA, zakładając, że w wyniku nagłego zdarzenia następuje wyciek 10 ton płynnego chloru z przewożącej go cysterny. Przyjęto, że czas wycieku wynosił jedną godzinę. Otrzymane wyniki naniesiono na mapę z uwzględnieniem zakładanej lokalizacji: droga E463 w Pszczynie. Dokonano analizy stopnia zagrożenia w zależności od kierunku i prędkości wiatru. Dodatkowe symulacje wykonano przyjmując różne szorstkości aerodynamiczne. Analiza wyników pozwala określić najmniej korzystne warunki meteorologiczne z punktu widzenia bezpieczeństwa mieszkańców.

EN

In the article was presented the effect of meteorological conditions and aerodynamic roughness of the substrate on the dispersion of dangerous, highly toxic substance - chlorine. Simulations were carried out in the ALOHA program, assuming that as a result of an emergency, 10 tons of liquid chlorine from the tanker carrying it were leaked. It was assumed that the leakage time was one hour. The obtained results were placed on the map taking into account the assumed location: road E463 in Pszczyna. The degree of hazard are analyzed depending on the direction and speed of the wind. Additional simulations were performed taking other leakage points and other aerodynamic roughness. The analysis of the results allows to determine the least favorable meteorological conditions from the point of view of the residents' safety.