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Zmiany całkowitej zawartości ozonu w atmosferze nad Belskiem na tle zmian ozonu nad Europą w latach 1963-2008

Rajewska-Więch B., Krzyścin J.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

2010

Z. 1-2

49-59

W pracy przedstawiono zmiany w całkowitej zawartości ozonu w Belsku i Europie na tle średnich wieloletnich (1963-2008). Od 2002 r. obserwujemy w Europie (i w Belsku) powrót do spadkowej tendencji całkowitej zawartości ozonu, zwłaszcza w sezonie zimowym. W sezonie letnim i jesiennym tendencja spadkowa istnieje w serii czasowej od lat 70., ale tempo spadku osłabło od połowy lat 90. ubiegłego wieku. Taki nieoczekiwany kierunek zmian w warstwie ozonowej może być wynikiem specyficznych fluktuacji w dynamice atmosfery. Dominującym czynnikiem spodziewanej regeneracji ozonu i powrotu jego zawartości do stanu sprzed lat 1980. jest spadek zawartości niszczących ozon substancji. O tym, kiedy i w jakim stopniu ten powrót nastąpi w różnych rejonach Ziemi, będą współdecydować zmiany klimatu. Najczęściej szacuje się, że powrót ozonu do stanu sprzed lat 1980. w obszarze 60oS-60oN nastąpi około połowy XXI wieku.

The results of measurements of column amount of ozone (total ozone) at Central Geophysical Observatory, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, at Belsk the long-term ozone changes in the period (1963-2008) are discussed and compared with those in the midlatitudinal and Central Europe. Since 2002 rather unexpected declining tendency appear over Belsk and Europe. It is especially pronounced in winters and the whole year data. Such decline appear after the period (since ~1995) when first signs of the ozone recovery were seen, i.e., slowing down rate of ozone decrease and a kind of the ozone trend overturning in winter months. The ozone depleting substances content in the stratosphere has been decreasing since mid 1990s as a result of restriction in production of such substances introduced by the Montreal Protocol (1988). Thus, there were expectations of a continuation of the ozone recovery in recent years. The chemical forcing related to decreasing concentration of ozone depleting substances has induced upward tendency in ozone since 1995. Appearance of a negative tendency in winter data and yearly data seem to be related with specific atmospheric circulation in recent years. Now it is difficult to estimate how persistent will be the present total ozone decline due to dynamical forcing. The interplay of ozone changes with the climate may induce unexpected regional changes in the ozone layer. The retrospective examination of the past ozone variability suggests that the long-term dynamical forcing on the ozone layer will be soon acting in opposite direction over Europe, i.e., the ozone amount in the atmosphere will be increasing in next few years.

Long-term changes (1980-2003) in total ozone time series over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes

Białek M.

Acta Geophysica

2006

Vol. 54, no. 1

60-70

Long-term changes in total ozone time series for Arosa, Belsk, Boulder and Sapporo stations are examined. For each station we analyze time series of the following statistical characteristics of the distribution of daily ozone data: seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum of total daily ozone values for all seasons. The iterative statistical model is proposed to estimate trends and long -term changes in the statistical distribution of the daily total ozone data. The trends are calculated for the period 1980-2003. We observe lessening of negative trends in the seasonal means as compared to those calculated by WMO for 1980-2000. We discuss a possibility of a change of the distribution shape of ozone daily data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparing trend values in the seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum time series for the selected stations and seasons. The distribution shift toward lower values without a change in the distribu-tion shape is suggested with the following exceptions: the spreading of the distribution toward lower values for Belsk during winter and no decisive result for Sapporo and Boulder in summer.