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Probability measures of likelihood of diagnosis of the technical state of main combustion engines of sea-going ships

Girtler J.

Journal of KONES

2009

Vol. 16, No. 2

125-132

The paper presents reasons for the need of discerning the notions: likelihood of diagnosis and rightness of diagnosis while taking operating decisions. A probability formula for establishing the right diagnosis has been derived as a likelihood measure of diagnosis. For deriving the formuła, the theory of semi-Markov processes and Bayes' formula of the conditional probability have been applied. Other probability measures of likelihood of diagnosis have been also presented. These measures concern the technical state of such important systems as combustion engines of sea-going ships. However, they can be of use also for other ship systems. The paper provides description of a stochastic decision situation following from operation of combustion engines in any operating system and on this background there is presented some proposals of applying the technical diagnostics for controlling the engine operating process. Formulating a problem for the combustion engines, solving the problem, diagnostic inference and likelihood of diagnosis as well a simplified model of combustion engine operation taking into account diagnosis and control in time of operation are presented in the paper.

Statistic And Probabilistic Measures Of Diagnosis Likelihood On The State Of Self-Ignition Combustion Engines

Girtler J.

Journal of Polish CIMAC

2007

Vol. 2, no 2

133-139

The paper presents the reasons for the need to differ the notions of: diagnosis likelihood and diagnosis rightness at making operating decisions. The formula of probability for formulating the right diagnosis, as the measure of diagnosis likelihood, has been herein derived. For deriving this formula the theory of semi-Markov processes and the Bayes’ formula of conditional probability have been applied. Other probabilistic measures of diagnosis likelihood have also been provided. These measures have been referred to technical state of such important systems as e.g. main engines of sea-going ships. However, they can be useful for determining the technical state of other transport means.