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Długookresowe tendencje obiegu wody w Kampinoskim Parku Narodowym

Gutry-Korycka M.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

2002

Z. 3-4

211-223

On the basis of trends analysis concerning river flow, phreatic water states and climate elements, the problem of intensifying water deficit in the Lasica River basin is described. Receiving two scenarios of global climate changes: pessimistic GFDL and moderately optimistic GISS an estimation of effect future changes in air temperature and precipitation on percolation and runoff from the catchment is made. The basin of the Lasica River (a tributary of the Bzura) is one of the lowland regions in Poland that is particularly threatened by water deficits in different seasons and years. This is the result of relatively low annual precipitation, as well as of human activity including deforestration, drainage, intensive abstraction of groundwater and intensive development of agriculture and urban agglomerations. Water deficit can be confirmed hydrologically in long term negative trends of runoff in the Lasica and Utrata River and for phreatic groundwater at several observation points (piezometer and wells). In analysis was made an annual trends for elements of the climate precipitation and air temperature, at the stations representing the lowland Lasica basin. In estimating future changes in elements of water circulation (groundwater, evapotranspiration, retention and runoff) was made of the GFDL and GISS scenarios for global climate change. Negative trends were noted for vertical feeding of groundwater in the cases of both the pessimistic GFDL and the moderately pessimistic GISS scenario. The anticipated unfavourable conditions for the supply and renewability of groundwater coincide with significant changes (reduction) already noted in subsurface storage and the flow of the Lasica River.