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1

Visual and statistical inference of hourly and sub hourly extreme rainfall trends Central Anatolia, Turkey case

Oruc Sertac

Acta Geophysica

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2021

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Vol. 69, no. 1

199--216

EN

The analysis of long-term rainfall data in a changing climate is important because it has many sectoral applications such as agriculture, infrastructure, and water resources management. Statistical analyses of the annual maximum rainfall data were performed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test to evaluate the annual maximum trend characteristics of the rainfall time series, the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method to detect categorial trends, and the ITA indicator to digitize the ITA results. Storm durations of 5, 10, 15, 30 min and 1, 3, 6, 24 h annual maximum rainfall series at 13 central stations in Central Anatolia, Turkey were used. According to the MK test results, there were no signifcant upward or downward monotonic trend at four stations, whereas the remaining nine stations showed a signifcant upward or downward monotonic trend. Signifcant negative and positive trends were identifed for the sub-hourly and hourly rainfall, whereas signifcant positive trends were detected for hourly storm durations. Signifcant trend results were mostly consistent with the general ITA results. The sub hourly storm duration data were more consistent in terms of signifcant trends. Conversely, when evaluated according to low, medium, and high data values in the rainfall series (categories), the high data values showed diferent trends. Although no trend was detected with the MK test, the ITA results showed an upward or downward trend for 25 rainfall series. 29 of 30 signifcant MK test results were consistent with the ITA indicator results, compared with 24 of 30 results of the visually inspected ITA results.

2

Trend and nonstationary relation of extreme rainfall: Central Anatolia, Turkey

Oruc Sertac

Acta Geophysica

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2021

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Vol. 69, no. 1

243--255

EN

The frequency of extreme rainfall occurrence is expected to increase in the future and neglecting these changes will result in the underestimation of extreme events. Nonstationary extreme value modelling is one of the ways to incorporate changing conditions into analyses. Although the defnition of nonstationary is still debated, the existence of nonstationarity is determined by the presence of signifcant monotonic upward or downward trends and/or shifts in the mean or variance. On the other hand, trend tests may not be a sign of nonstationarity and a lack of signifcant trend cannot be accepted as time series being stationary. Thus, this study investigated the relation between trend and nonstationarity for 5, 10, 15, and 30 min and 1, 3, 6, and 24 h annual maximum rainfall series at 13 stations in Central Anatolia, Turkey. Trend tests such as Mann– Kendall (MK), Cox–Stuart (CS), and Pettitt’s (P) tests were applied and nonstationary generalized extreme value models were generated. MK test and CS test results showed that 33% and 27% of 104 time series indicate a signifcant trend (with p<0.01–p<0.05–p<0.1 signifcance level), respectively. Moreover, 43% of time series have outperformed nonstationary (NST) models that used time as covariate. Among fve diferent time-variant nonstationary models, the model with a location parameter as a linear function of time and the model with a location and scale parameter as a linear function of time performed better. Considering the rainfall series with a signifcant trend, increasing trend power may increase how well fitted nonstationary models are. However, it is not necessary to have a signifcant trend to obtain outperforming nonstationary models. This study supported that it is not necessarily time series to have a trend to perform better nonstationary models and acceptance of nonstationarity solely depending on the presence of trend may be misleading.

3

Quantile trends of subhourly extreme rainfall: Marmara Region, Turkey

Oruc Sertac

Acta Geophysica

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2021

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Vol. 69, no. 6

2453--2473

EN

Global climate change will probably cause intensification of the hydrologic cycle, which can lead to alterations in extreme precipitation properties. In this study, we investigated the trend of 5-, 10-, 15-, and 30-min annual maximum rainfall series at 12 stations in the Marmara Region, Turkey, using quantile regression. The data ranges were from 46 to 71 years long. Five quantiles were used to examine the extreme rainfall series, and their quantile regression parameters were calculated. The results show that quantile regression is a powerful tool to compute trends with a more inferential context, which was validated with the notable differences between the trends at chosen quantiles and the classical ordinary least squares method. Concerning the problem of the analysis of climate trends, the quantile regression method seems to provide a perspective from a more detailed understanding of processes in the climate system in terms of characteristics of climate variability and extremity.

4

The structure and dynamics of medical personnel in Poland and in the silesian voivodship: main tendencies and challenges

Dubrovina Nadiya, Siwiec Andrzej, Dubrovina Vira, Nestorenko Tetyana

Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Technicznej w Katowicach

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2019

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nr 11

29--44

EN

Health care is an important area of social infrastructure with its own specifics. In recent years, healthcare has been actively developing, using new advances in biomedical technology and pharmacy. Despite of the serious achievements in the reforms of the healthcare in Poland in last decades the important problems and disparities exists on the distribution of the medical personnel in the country and same regions. The purposes of the article were: the adjustment of the importance of the strategi cal management and human resources management in healthcare; the study of the cha racteristics of the la bor market in the field of healthcare in the Silesia n Voivodship and to compare with generał situation in Poland; the ana lysis of the structure and dynamics of the med i cal personnel in the Silesia n Voivodship ta king into account main tendencies and challenges in the healthcare. In the article the features of the structure and dynamics of medical personnel were considered in Poland and Silesia n Voivodship, the set of the important indicators such as: education level of the different categories of med i cal personnel; number of students of medical universities; age structure of medical personnel; structure of specialization of doctors number of consultations of specialist doctors received by patients; main indicators of the healthcare system (specification and number of wards; beds in wards; inpatients; out-patients of day care; average length of stay in hospital in days, etc.) were analyzed and comparative ana lysis of these indicators was carried out. Based on the analysis the position of Silesian Voivodship in the point of structure and dynamics of the med i cal personnel was evaluated and recommendations were proposed.

PL

Ochrona zdrowia jest ważnym obszarem infrastruktury społecznej, który ma swoją specyfikę. W ostatnich latach opieka zdrowotna aktywnie się rozwija, wykorzystując nowe osiągnięcia w dziedzinie technologii biomedycznej i farmacji. Pomimo poważnych osiągnięć w zakresie reformy opieki zdrowotnej w Polsce w ostatnich dziesięcioleciach istnieją poważne problemy oraz różnice w rozmieszczeniu personelu medycznego w kraju i niektórych regionach. Celem artykułu było dostosowanie znaczenia zarządzania strategicznego i zarządzania zasobami ludzkimi w opiece zdrowotnej, badanie cech rynku pracy w zakresie opieki zdrowotnej w województwie śląskim oraz porównanie z ogólną sytuacją w Polsce. Analiza struktury i dynamiki personelu medycznego w województwie śląskim z uwzględnieniem głównych tendencji i wyzwań w ochronie zdrowia. Na podstawie analizy oceniono pozycję województwa śląskiego pod względem struktury i dynamiki personelu medycznego oraz zaproponowano rekomendacje.

5

Działalność innowacyjna przedsiębiorstw przemysłowych w Polsce w latach 2011-2016

Olesińska Katarzyna, Kędzierska Kinga

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Łódzka

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2019

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z. 72

45--58

PL

Celem artykułu jest zbadanie poziomu innowacyjności polskich przedsiębiorstw w latach 2011- 2016. Przedstawione wyniki porównano z danymi przedstawionymi w pracy Baruka [2012, ss. 66-79]. Z analizy porównawczej wynika, że poziom innowacyjności polskich przedsiębiorstw jest niski. Poziom innowacyjności Polski w badanym okresie charakteryzował się tendencją spadkową.

EN

The aim of the article is to examine the level of innovativeness of Polish enterprises in the years 2011-2016. The presented results were compared with the data presented in Baruk’s work. The post-equivalent analysis shows that the level of innovativeness of Polish enterprises is low. The level of innovativeness of Poland in the analysed period was characterised by a downward trend.

6

Heat waves in Poland in the period 1951-2015: trends, patterns and driving factors

Wibig J.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2018

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Vol. 6, Iss. 1

37--45

EN

Heat waves were analysed on the basis of maximum daily temperature from 24 meteorological stations in Poland. Heat waves are defined as the longest continuous period during which Tmax (daily maximum air temperature) is equal to or higher than 30°C in at least three days, the mean Tmax during the whole heat wave is equal or higher than 30°C and Tmax does not drop below 25°C during the whole period of heat wave duration. Heat waves occur in Poland from April to September with their maximums in July and August. Four-day-long heat waves are most frequent but the longest one lasted 31 days. The most persistent heat waves were in 1994 and 2015. An increasing trend in heat wave frequency and intensity is observed in Poland, however the increase is statistically significant at only about 60% of analysed stations. Four synoptic patterns favouring heat waves have been distinguished. A strong high over the Azores accompanies all of them, as well as slightly higher than normal pressure over Central Europe – this causes calm and sunny weather over Poland. Strong blocking appears over the North Atlantic during heat wave events, proofing that the development of strong heat waves in Poland is related to large scale circulation and that they are not of local origin. The analysis of the impact of soil moisture in months leading up to the development of heat waves should be the next step in analysis.

7

Detection of trends and break points in temperature: the case of Umbria (Italy) and Guadalquivir Valley (Spain)

Herrera-Grimaldi P., García-Marín A., Ayuso-Muñoz J. L., Flamini A., Morbidelli R., Ayuso-Ruíz J. L.

Acta Geophysica

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2018

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Vol. 66, no. 3

329--343

EN

The increase of air surface temperature at global scale is a fact with values around 0.85 °C since the late nineteen century. Nevertheless, the increase is not equally distributed all over the world, varying from one region to others. Thus, it becomes interesting to study the evolution of temperature indices for a certain area in order to analyse the existence of climatic trend in it. In this work, monthly temperature time series from two Mediterranean areas are used: the Umbria region in Italy, and the Guadalquivir Valley in southern Spain. For the available stations, six temperature indices (three annual and three monthly) of mean, average maximum and average minimum temperature have been obtained, and the existence of trends has been studied by applying the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test. Both regions show a general increase in all temperature indices, being the pattern of the trends clearer in Spain than in Italy. The Italian area is the only one at which some negative trends are detected. The presence of break points in the temperature series has been also studied by using the non-parametric Pettit test and the parametric standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT), most of which may be due to natural phenomena.

8

Oświetlenie mieszkań - współczesne trendy i nowatorskie tendencje

Rysik M., Żagan W.

Wiadomości Elektrotechniczne

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2016

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R. 84, nr 10

3--6

PL

Przedstawiono współczesne trendy i nowatorskie tendencje w oświetleniu mieszkań z wykorzystaniem źródła światła w postaci LED-ów.

EN

The article presents contemporary trends and innovative tendencies in home space illumination with the use of light sources in the form of LEDs.

9

The Long-Term (1964-2014) Variability of Aerosol Optical Thickness and its Impact on Solar Irradiance Based on the Data Taken at Belsk, Poland

Posyniak M., Szkop A., Pietruczuk A., Podgórski J., Krzyścin J.

Acta Geophysica

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2016

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Vol. 64, no. 5

1858--1874

EN

Measurements of the Linke turbidity factor (LTF) were performed at Belsk (20.78°E, 51.83°N), Poland, since 1964. This data is used to retrieve broadband aerosol optical thickness normalized to the air mass equal to 2 (BAOT2). A linear analysis of the BAOT2 changes reveals an upward trend of 0.023±0.017(2σ) in the 1964-1975 period, a downward trend of –0.051±0.017(2σ) in the 1976-1991 period, and afterwards a statistically insignificant trend of –0.009 ± 0.014(2σ). Such pattern may be related to the economic changes in Poland (changing emissions and environmental policies). The elevated BAOT2 values, excluded from the trend, are found in 1984 and 1992 due to the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo, respectively. Past AOT values at 340 and 500 nm are reconstructed using a linear relationship found between AOT and BAOT2. The reconstructed data is used by the radiative transfer models to estimate a response of the total solar and erythemal radiation to the changes in the atmospheric aerosols at Belsk.

10

Non-significant trends towards earlier or later arrival date of the Pied Wagtail (Motacilla alba) in N-W Croatia

Dolenec Z.

Polish Journal of Ecology

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2012

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Vol. 60, nr 4

851--854

EN

Over the past century, average global temperature increased by an approximately of 0.6°C and it has been show that global warming has been affecting many biological systems. Recent climate change has influenced birds in many ways. The aim of this work is to present trends in the first arrival date and potential impact of mean monthly temperature on the spring migration of the Pied Wagtail (Motacilla alba) in long-term study in northwestern Croatia (Mokrice rural area). The study was conducted during 1980–2011. The Pied Wagtail is a small, semi-hole nesting, migratory, insectivorous passerine breeding in Europe and Asia (also breeds in Morocco and western Alaska). This study didn’t show that over the research period the Pied Wagtail returned to their breeding sites significantly earlier. This can be explained with the fact that local temperatures for February/March, did not increase significantly (P> 0.05). The change in Pied Wagtail arrivals was very little and advanced 1.47 days (non-significant) over the study period (1980–2011). \\@eng\

11

Integral Assessment of the Transboundary Mesta River Trophic Pollution in Bułgaria

Diadovski I., Atanassova M., Simeonov V.

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering. A

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2010

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Vol. 17, nr 2-3

199-215

EN

A conceptual model for integrated river pollution assessment is proposed. Integral assessment of the trophic pollution of the transboundary Mesta River has been made for the initial (background) and final (reference) point of the Bulgarian section by means of some basic indicators. A time period characterizing the economic activity in the country during the transition to market economy has been considered for evaluation of the indicators. The dynamics of the indicators: BOD5, nitrates(V), nitrates(IH), integral index for the trophic pollution level, average annual water amount and biotic index has been analyzed. The integral index is based on the organic and nutrients loading suspended and dissolved substances. Long-term trends seasonal pattern and data set structures are studied by the use of statistical analysis. A trend towards reduction of the indicator values has been identified for background and reference point during the considered period (1989-1995). Only the nitrate(V) content in the background point exhibits a trend towards increasing the values due to natural processes in the catchment. On the basis of the retrospective analysis the conclusion can be drawn that the water quality needs the normative requirements of the river category in Bułgaria.

PL

Zaproponowano koncepcję modelu zintegrowanej oceny zanieczyszczenia rzeki. Dokonano całościowej oceny troficznego zanieczyszczenia transgranicznej rzeki Mesty na podstawie wartości podstawowych wskaźników zmierzonych w początkowym (tło) i końcowym (referencyjnym) bułgarskim odcinku rzeki. Dokonując ocen wskaźników, uwzględniono zmiany gospodarcze zachodzące w kraju, w tym przejście do gospodarki rynkowej. Analizowano wartości takich wskaźników, jak: BZT5, stężenie azotanów(V), stężenie azotanów(III), całkowity wskaźnik zanieczyszczeń troficznych, średni roczny przepływ wody i wartości indeksu biotycznego. Całkowity wskaźnik uwzględnia ładunek organicznych i zawieszonych składników pokarmowych oraz substancje rozpuszczone. Dokonano analizy statystycznej długoterminowych trendów sezonowych i struktury rozpatrywanych zbiorów danych. W badanym okresie (1989-1995) zaobserwowano tendencję w kierunku zmniejszenia się wartości wskaźników w punkcie tła i punkcie odniesienia. Tylko azotany(V) w punkcie tła w zlewni wykazują tendencję do wzrostu wartości w wyniku naturalnych procesów. Na podstawie analizy retrospektywnej można stwierdzić, że jakość wody mieści się w normatywnych wymogach dla rzek w Bułgarii.

12

Przemiany języka architektury : Znaczenia wybrane

Pieczara M.

Czasopismo Techniczne. Architektura

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2005

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R. 102, z. 13-A

133--146

PL

Mówiąc o przemianach języka architektury, które doprowadziły go do dzisiejszej postaci, należy zapoznać się z tendencjami rządzącymi tą dziedziną począwszy od epoki odrodzenia. Od przeciwstawienia renesansowego modelu idealnego gotyckiej sztuce emocji, przez dalsze dążenie do absolutu i manierystyczny dualizm, przez powrót kultu obrazu w baroku i racjonalistyczną typizację w oświeceniu, zbliżamy się do momentu, kiedy trendy architektoniczne ulegają rozspojeniu. Romantyczny historyzm i jego posługiwanie się zróżnicowanymi emblematami, dalej ekspresjonizm czy secesja, podkreślające indywidualizm rozwiązań, są przeciwstawne rodzącemu się stylowi międzynarodowemu, opierającemu się na zasadach czystego funkcjonalizmu i nowoczesności. W tym miejscu bierze początek współczesna dowolność, oscylująca pomiędzy zabawą a pełnym powagi poszukiwaniem sensu. Dzisiejsza architektura nie ma już narzuconego stylu; nie ma też jednolitego języka, który mogliby zrozumieć wszyscy.

EN

When discussing the transformations into the language of architecture that have brought it about its present shape, all the tendencies which were in charge of this art, dating back to Renaissance, need to be taken under consideration. Starting with opposition of Renaissance ideal model to Gothic emotional art, through continuation of the ideal in drifting towards the absolute and manneristic dualism, through cult of picture in baroque and Enlightenment rational type; the considerations reache certain point in which the architectural tendencies start to dissolve. Romantic historism and its utilisation of diverse emblems, expressionism or Art Nouveau that emphesize individualism exist opposite the novelty of international style, supported by the ideology of functionalism and modernity. From that situation derives current ambiguity or arbitrariness, which oscillates between the game and the serious research of sense.The contemporary architecture has neither a mandatory style nor an universal language that everyone could understand.