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Reliability assessment of an exemplary system operating at variable conditions

Kołowrocki K., Kuligowska E., Soszyńska-Budny J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2015

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Vol. 6, No. 1

129--137

EN

The reliability analysis of a multistate complex system subjected to varying in time its operation process is performed. A semi-Markov process is applied to construct the multistate model of the system operation process and its main characteristics are determined. Analytical linking of the system operation process model with the system multistate reliability model is proposed to get a general reliability model of the complex system operating at varying in time operation conditions and to find its reliability characteristics. The constructed integrated general model of a complex multistate system reliability, linking its reliability model and its operation process model and considering variable at different operation states its reliability structure and its components reliability parameters is applied to the reliability evaluation of an exemplary system.

2

Monte Carlo simulation application to reliability assessment of an exemplary system operating at variable conditions

Kołowrocki K., Kuligowska E., Soszyńska-Budny J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2015

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Vol. 6, No. 1

137--144

EN

A semi-Markov process is applied to construct the multistate model of the system operation process and its main characteristics are determined. Analytical linking of the system operation process model with the system multistate reliability model is proposed to get a general reliability model of the complex system operating at varying in time operation conditions and to find its reliability characteristics. The Monte Carlo simulation algorithm based on the integrated general model of a complex multistate system reliability, linking its reliability model and its operation process model and considering variable at different operation states its reliability structure and its components reliability parameters is applied to the reliability evaluation of an exemplary system. Next the results of this simulation method application are illustrated and compared with the results obtained by the analytical method.

3

Complex technical systems safety prediction

Soszyńska-Budny J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2014

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Vol. 5, No. 2

127--142

EN

There are presented general safety analytical models of complex multistate technical systems related to their operation processes. They are the integrated general models of complex technical systems, linking their multistate safety models and their operation processes models and considering variable at the different operation states safety structures and their components safety parameters. The conditional safety functions at the system particular operation states and independent of the system particular operation states the unconditional safety function and the risk function of the complex technical systems are defined. These joint models of the safety and the variable in time system operation processes are constructed for multistate series, parallel, “m out of n”, consecutive “m out of n: F”, series-parallel, parallel-series, series-“m out of k”, “mi out of li”-series, series-consecutive “m out of k: F” and consecutive “mi out of li: F”-series systems. The joint models are applied to determining safety characteristics of these systems related to their varying in time safety structures and their components safety characteristics. Under the assumption that the considered systems are exponential, the unconditional safety functions of these systems are determined. The proposed models and methods are applied to the safety analysis, evaluation and prediction of the one subsystem of the port grain transportation system related to varying in time their operation processes, structures and components safety parameters.

4

Analysis of system operation process influence on its reliability

Kuligowska E.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2014

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Vol. 5, No. 1

125--135

EN

The paper presents analytical and Monte Carlo simulation methods applied to the reliability evaluation of a system operating in two different operation states. A semi-Markov process is applied to construct the system operation model and its main characteristics are determined. Analytical linking of this operation model with the system reliability model is proposed to get a general reliability model of the system operating at two varying in time operation conditions and to find its reliability characteristics. The application of Monte Carlo simulation based on this general model to the reliability evaluation of this system is proposed as well. The exemplary results obtained from those two considered methods are illustrated.

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Integrated software tools supporting decision making on identification, prediction and optimization of complex technical systems operation, reliability and safety. Part 2. Integrated software tools application – Exemplary system operation and reliability unknown parameters identification

Blokus-Roszkowska A., Kołowrocki K., Fu X.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2011

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Vol. 2, No. 2

279--288

EN

There is presented the application of the integrated software tools to the operation and reliability models of an exemplary complex technical system unknown parameters identification. There are performed in the paper, the exemplary system operation and reliability analysis and modelling. The identification of the probabilities of transitions this system operation process between the operation states and the conditional mean values of this process sojourn times at the particular operation states because of the lack of statistical data is performed throw the arbitrary fixing their values assumption. Next using the computer program CP 8.3 the automatic evaluation of the system components unknown intensities of departures the reliability state subsets and the identification of the exponential forms of their multistate reliability functions on the arbitrarily fixed statistical data coming from the system components states changing processes are performed as well.

6

Integrated software tools supporting decision making on identification,prediction and optimization of complex technical systems operation,reliability and safety. Part 6. Integrated software tools application – Exemplary system operation cost analysis and maintenance optimization

Blokus-Roszkowska A., Kołowrocki K., Salahuddin H. M.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2011

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Vol. 2, No. 2

323--336

EN

The integrated software tools are applied to the exemplary system operation cost analysis and maintenance optimization. Using the computer program CP 8.12 there is obtained the evaluation of the cost before and after the exemplary system operation process optimization and next the computer program CP 8.13 is applied for operation cost analysis of the improved exemplary system. The methods of corrective and preventive maintenance policy maximizing availability and minimizing renovation cost of the complex technical systems in variable operation conditions are illustrated for the analyzed exemplary system using equivalently the computer program CP 8.14 for maintenance policy maximizing system availability and CP 8.15 for minimizing system renovation cost.

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Integrated software tools supporting decision making on identification, prediction and optimization of complex technical systems operation, reliability and safety. Part 3. Integrated software tools application – Exemplary system operation and reliability characteristics prediction

Blokus-Roszkowska A., Kołowrocki K., Fu X.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2011

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Vol. 2, No. 2

289--296

EN

There is presented the application of the integrated software tools to the operation and reliability of an exemplary complex technical system prediction. The computer program CP 8.5 is used to determine the unconditional mean sojourn times and the limit transient probabilities of the exemplary system operation process at the particular operation states evaluations. Using the computer program CP 8.6 there are performed the evaluations of the exemplary system unconditional multistate reliability function, the expected values and the standard deviations of its unconditional lifetimes in the reliability state subsets and the mean values of its lifetimes in the particular reliability states. Finally, in the case when the system is repairable, its renewal and availability characteristics are estimated from the results of computer program CP 8.8.

8

Preliminary statistical identification and prediction of the container gantry crane operation process

Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2010

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Vol. 1, No. 1

173--180

EN

In the paper a Semi-markov process is used to construct a general model of complex industrial systems’ operation processes. Main parameters of this model are defined and its main characteristics are determined as well. In particular case, for a gantry crane, the operation states are defined, the relationships between them are fixed and particular model of its operation process is constructed and finally its main characteristics are determined.

9

Preliminary reliability, risk and availability analysis and evaluation of bulk cargo transportation system in variable operation conditions

Kołowrocki K., Kwiatuszewska-Sarnecka B., Soszyńska J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2009

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Vol. 1

179--188

EN

In the paper, definitions and theoretical results on system operations process, multi-state system reliability, risk and availability modelling are illustrated by the example of their application to a bulk cargo transportation system operating in Gdynia Port Bulk Cargo Terminal. The bulk cargo transportation system is considered in varying in time operation conditions. The system reliability structure and its components reliability functions are changing in variable operation conditions. The system reliability structures are fixed with a high accuracy. Whereas, the input reliability characteristics of the bulk cargo transportation system components and the system operation process characteristics are not sufficiently exact because of the lack of statistical data. Anyway, the obtained evaluation may be a very useful example in simple and quick systems reliability characteristics evaluation, especially during the design and improving the transportation systems operating in ports.

10

Methods and algorithms for evaluating unknown parameters of operation processes of complex technical systems

Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2009

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Vol. 2

211--222

EN

The paper objectives are to present the methods and tools useful in the statistical identifying unknown parameters of the operation models of complex technical systems and to apply them in the maritime industry. There are presented statistical methods of determining unknown parameters of the semi-markov model of the complex technical system operation processes. There is also presented the chi-square goodness-of-fit test applied to verifying the distributions of the system operation process conditional sojourn times in the particular operation states. Applications of these tools to identifying and predicting the operation characteristics of a ferry operating at the Baltic Sea waters are presented as well.

11

A general model of industrial systems operation processes related to their environment and infrastructure

Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2008

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Vol. 2

223--226

EN

The operation process of the complex industrial system is considered and its operation states are introduced. The semi-markov process is used to construct a general probabilistic model of the considered complex industrial system operation process. To build this model the vector of probabilities of the system operation process initials operation states, the matrix of probabilities of the system operation process transitions between the operation states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the system operation process conditional sojourn times in the operation states are defined. To describe the system operation process conditional sojourn times in the particular operation states the uniform distribution, the triangle distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull distribution and the normal distribution are suggested. Under these all assumptions from the constructed general model the main characteristics of the system operation process are find. The mean values of the system operation process conditional sojourn times in particular operation states having these distributions are calculated. Moreover, the unconditional distribution functions of the system operation process unconditional sojourn times in the particular operation states, the mean values of the system operation process unconditional sojourn times in the particular operation states, the limit values of the transient probabilities of the system operation process at the particular operation states and the mean values of the system operation process total sojourn times in the particular operation states are determined.

12

Ocena niezawodności i gotowości stoczniowego systemu transportu linowego

Blokus-Roszkowska A., Kołowrocki K.

Zeszyty Naukowe / Akademia Morska w Szczecinie

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2005

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nr 6 (78)

47-56

PL

Przedstawiono połączenie wyników dotyczących niezawodności systemów z uwzględnieniem ich procesów eksploatacji i wyników dotyczących granicznych funkcji niezawodności systemów równoległo-szeregowych. Zastosowanie asymptotycznego podejścia do oceny niezawodności i gotowości wielostanowego systemu równoległo-szeregowego w zmiennych warunkach eksploatacyjnych zostało zaprezentowane na przykładzie stoczniowego systemu transportu linowego.

EN

The paper presents the results on systems' reliability related to their operation processes and the results on limit reliability functions of parallel-series systems. The results of the asymptotic approach to the evaluation of multi-state parallel-series system reliability and availability are presented. Finally, their application to the ship-rope transportation system evaluation is given.