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Probabilistic methods of risk predictions and their pragmatic applications in life cycle of complex systems

Kostogryzov Andrey, Nistratov Andrey

Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes

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2020

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Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020

153--174

EN

The probabilistic methods of risk predictions, focused on the prognostic modeling of complex systems, and their pragmatic applications are proposed. They are based on an implementation of the proposed interconnected ideas about system analysis in life cycle. The approach includes description of the probabilistic models, optimization methods for rationale actions and incremental algorithms for solving the problems of supporting decisionmaking and rationale preventive actions in uncertainty conditions. A suitability of the proposed models and methods is demonstrated by examples which cover wide reliability and safety applications for some intellectual systems, enterprises of coal company, a floating oil and gas platform, a set of manufacturing processes of gas preparation equipment, the systems of oil&gas transportation and distribution. The approach means practically proactive commitment to excellence in uncertainty conditions.

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Ewolucja badań systemowych na potrzeby bezpieczeństwa

Sienkiewicz Piotr

Studia Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego

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2019

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R. 9, Nr 15

87--104

PL

W artykule przedstawiono ewolucję badań systemowych na tle współczesnych problemów metodologicznych w obszarze bezpieczeństwa systemów społecznych i systemów technicznych. Przyjęto, że współczesne badania systemowe obejmują metodologię holistyczno-systemową, liczne teorie systemów oraz analizę systemową i inżynierię systemów. Uwzględniono doświadczenia badań operacyjnych i RAND Corporation. Stwierdzono, że o wartości współczesnych badań systemowych w obszarze nauk o bezpieczeństwie stanowią zastosowania modeli systemów (sieci) oraz metody i techniki ewaluacyjne i decyzyjne.

EN

The article presents the evolution of systemic research in the area of security of social systems, and technical systems, acknowledging various contemporary methodological problems. It is assumed that the modern systemic studies include holistic-system methodology, numerous systems theories, as well as system analysis, and systems engineering. Operational research and RAND Corporation were taken also into account. It is the understanding that the value of modern systemic research in the area of security sciences is the application of system models (networks), as well as evaluation with decision methods and techniques.

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Automated Guided Vehicles by Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor: Future of In-house Logistics

Rao Anand, Vantagodi Nihal Vishnu, Shanbhag Kartik A., Mahesh M.

Power Electronics and Drives

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2019

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Vol. 4 (39)

151--159

EN

Material handling and logistics management that involve transportation of work pieces on production floor are important aspects to manufacturing that affect productivity and efficiency. Tow vehicles that are manually driven are currently used for this purpose. These processes can be better performed through automation. Automated guided vehicle (AGV) is an apt solution. AGVs are unmanned autonomous vehicles that can be programmed to perform versatile tasks. AGVs available in market are imported and hence have high capital cost and increased lead time for spare parts. Proposed AGV is built with a capital cost that is less than half of the existing AGVs. Its design is made indigenously, with most of its parts locally sourced. It can achieve a speed of 0.83 m/s, with a pulling capacity of 1,300 kg. Its rechargeable batteries sustain four hours of continuous operation for one complete discharge. It has been tested and found to effectively replace tow vehicles.

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Applicable technologies to forecast, analyze and optimize reliability and risks for complex systems

Kostogryzov A., Nistratov G., Nistratov A.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2012

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Vol. 3, No. 1

1--14

EN

The paper is concerned with the application of the original mathematical models and supporting them software technologies to forecast, analyze and optimize reliability and risks for complex systems (system is defined as a combination of interacting elements organized to achieve one or more stated purposes). Functionality and usability to analyze information system processes and standard processes in system life cycle are presented. Rational use of the proposed results allows to go «from a pragmatical filtration of information to generation of the proved ideas and effective decisions». Effects are demonstrated by examples.