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Synthesis of EPATS demand estimation

Laplace I., Chertier C., Baron A., Mączka M.

Prace Instytutu Lotnictwa

2010

Nr 3 (205)

67-81

A mode choice model that generates on demand small aircraft travel forecasts between NUTS-2 regions connections of 28 EU countries based on interregional passengers mobility and value of time and vehicle performance characteristics is presented. The paper explains Small Aircraft Transport demand modeling at the EU mobility and airspace levels. The model is based on the assumption, that the passenger chooses the mode of transport, which minimizes their generalized cost of travel. The model has been developed under the project EPATS (European Personal Air Transportation System) funded by EU Commission. The model gives an instrument to evaluate the potential transfer of passenger demand to personal aviation by 2020 and the fleet of EPATS aircraft that would be needed to satisfy this demand. The estimations have been made first at European level and then at national level for domestic traffic of two European countries: France and Poland.