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Business cycles in European regions

Spychała Marcin, Spychała Joanna

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

2024

z. 193

561--575

Purpose: The main purpose of the considerations is to present and analyze the most important morphological features of cyclical fluctuations for the 27 European Union countries as a whole (aggregated indicator – EU27) and for individual EU countries in the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022 based on the gross domestic product dynamics indicator. On the basis of the constructed indicators, which made it possible to isolate business cycle fluctuations, the degree of synchronization of the cycles of individual EU regions with the EU27 reference cycle was assessed. Design/methodology/approach: The methodological foundations of the research process and the empirical assessment of regional business cycles in the EU were preceded by theoretical analyzes regarding the concept, essence and morphological features of regional business cycle fluctuations. The study is based on 92 observations for each studied region. Dynamic indicators were built reflecting changes in general economic activity, i.e. quarterly time series of GDP. The obtained series were decomposed and deseasonalized. Upper and lower turning points were identified, resulting in phases of growth and slump in a given economy. This made it possible to present full business cycles and then assess them (in particular, determine the degree of synchronization between individual countries and the reference cycle). Findings: By assessing the course of fluctuations in business cycles of the entire economy of the European Union as a whole and fluctuations in business cycles of individual regions making up the EU in the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022, it can be concluded that this progression is not uniform. Divergences in business cycles in the European Union are an important feature of the data. This differentiation depends largely on the specific development of each region. Originality/value: The course of cyclical fluctuations was determined for all countries that are members of the European Union, as well as in individual EU regions.

Regional business cycles in Poland

Spychała Joanna

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

2020

z. 146

441--454

Purpose: The main goal of the considerations presented hereinbelow is a presentation of the course of action as well as an analysis of crucial features of cyclical fluctuations differentiated as entities in the Polish economy as well as in all provinces in the period of the first quarter of 2005 until the second quarter of 2019 based on the rate of the sold production of industry. Design/methodology/approach: A share of the respective regions in the structure of the sold production of industry was assessed. Finally, an attempt of assessing the rate of convergence in terms of morphology of a national chain with time chains of the respective regions was undertaken. In the thesis, a hypothesis is being stated that the most synchronised with the cycle of Poland are regions having the biggest share in the sold production of industry. Methodological bases of the research process as well as an empirical assessment of the regional business cycles in Poland were preceded by theoretical analyses concerning the notion, the core as well as the morphological features of the regional business fluctuations. Findings: Making an assessment of the progression of business cycle fluctuations of the economy of Poland as a whole as well as business cycle fluctuations of Polish provinces in the period between the first quarter 2005 and the second quarter of 2019, one may conclude the progression is not uniform. The variation depends to a large extent on the specificity of development of each region. Provinces which have a lower share in the national structure of the sold production of industry demonstrate higher sensitivity to economic shocks. The highest degree of compliance with the national cycle has been demonstrated in provinces with the highest rate of share in the structure of the sold production of industry. Research limitations/implications: The conducted research, as well as the obtained results might thus be a basis for taking up more extensive analyses in that field, comprising a discussion on the remaining morphological features of business cycles. Originality/value: Determining the course of cyclical fluctuations in Poland as well as in its respective provinces has been made.