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Feed forward Artificial Neural Network model to predict the average summer-monsoon rainfall in India

Chattopadhyay S.

Acta Geophysica

2007

Vol. 55, no. 3

369-382

In the present research, possibility of predicting average summer-monsoon rainfall over India has been analyzed through Artificial Neural Network model. In formulating the ANN – based predictive model, three-layer network has been constructed with sigmoid non-linearity. The monthly summer monsoon rainfall totals, tropical rainfall indices and sea surface temperature anomalies have been considered as predictors while generating the input matrix for the ANN. The data pertaining to the years 1950-1995 have been explored to develop the predictive model. Fi-nally, the prediction performance of neural net has been compared with persistence forecast and Multiple Linear Regression forecast and the supremacy of the ANN has been established over the other processes.