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Predictability of some spectral and differential models of physics of atmosphere and their structural stability

Brojewski R.

Journal of Technical Physics

1999

Vol. 40, no 4

485-504

The paper considers the influence of structural stability of the difference and spectral models and nonlinear equations of gravity waves on their predictability during integration in longer ranges of time. The influence of singular disturbances in the initial condition on the predictability of a grid model not filtered from gravity waves is demonstrated on the basis of the example of the shallow water equations. The influence of the structural instability of the spectral model on the topology of attractors in the Lorenz model is presented as well as the ability to forecast of the divergent-barotropic model in the situation of occurrence of a bifurcation related to orography. It is stated that the models constructed in Hilbert space have the dynamics more similar to the real one in comparison with the difference models constructed on calculation grids. It is demonstrated on examples that the difference models are more vulnerable to chaotic solutions.