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Stream flow dynamics under current and future land cover conditions in Atsela Watershed, Northern Ethiopia

Gebretekle Haftu, Nigusse Amare Gebremedhin, Demissie Biadgilgn

Acta Geophysica

2022

Vol. 70, no 1

305--318

The aim of the present study was to detect land cover change for the last three decades and estimate its impact on stream flow dynamics under the current and future scenarios. Landsat satellite imageries were used for land cover classification for selected years (1987, 2002 and 2017). The effect of land cover change on stream flow was evaluated using SWAT model, and its performance was tested. The findings indicated significant land cover changes in the last three decades. Coverage of cultivated land (17%) and bare land (1%) in 1987 increased rapidly to 43 and 17% in 2017. Furthermore, there was 70% agreement between observed and simulated stream flow in both the calibration and validation phases. The stream flow of the watershed was changing significantly in response to land cover dynamics. The evaluation of hydrological response due to land cover change showed a monthly mean stream flow decrease by 12.7 m3 /s (−38%) in 1987 and 2017 in dry months. Nevertheless, it showed a monthly mean stream flow increase by 53.06 m3 /s (23%) in wet months. Similarly, between the years 2017 and 2047, the stream flow was estimated to increase by 42.84 m3 /s (15%) for wet months and a decrease by 13.52 m3 /s (−66%) for dry months. Generally, it can be concluded that land cover changes have significant impact on stream flow. Hence, establishing strong land use and water resource policies is an essential means for better evaluation and monitoring of water resource in the study area.