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Modelling, identification and prediction of oil spill domains at port and sea water areas

Dąbrowska Ewa, Kołowrocki Krzysztof

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2019

Vol. 10, No. 1

43--58

Methods of oil spill domains determination are reviewed and a new method based on a probabilistic approach to the solution of this problem is recommended. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. To describe the oil spill domain central point position a two-dimensional stochastic process is used. Parametric equations of oil spill domain central point drift trend curve for different kinds of hydro-meteorological conditions are determined. The general model of oil spill domain determination for various hydro-meteorological conditions is proposed. Moreover, statistical methods of this general model unknown parameters estimation are proposed. These methods are presented in the form of algorithms giving successive steps which should be done to evaluate these unknown model parameters on the base of statistical data coming from experiments performed at the sea. Moreover, approximate expected stochastic prediction and Monte Carlo Simulation in real time prediction of the oil spill domain movement are proposed.

Some model of stochastic prediction

Tylutki B., Wesołowska M.

Journal of Mathematics and Applications

2011

Vol. 34

117--123

This article presents a method of the stochastic prediction, more exactly the method of estimating of the covariance function of the stochastic process that is stationary in a wider sense. The reason for doing this is that the covariance function is necessary for prediction.

Computer-based voltage dip assessment in transmission and distribution networks

Martínez-Velasco J. A.

Electrical Power Quality and Utilisation. Journal

2008

Vol. 14, iss. 1

31-38

Digital simulation is a powerful mean to predict the voltage dip performance of a power network. Voltage dip characteristics can be accurately reproduced using present simulation tools and a stochastic prediction procedure that could incorporate the random nature of the voltage dip causes and the behaviour of sensitive equipment during this type of events. This work is aimed at providing a review of techniques that can be applied to voltage dip prediction, assuming that voltage dips are caused by faults. The paper includes a discussion on modelling guidelines to be used for representation of power system components in voltage dip calculations, a summary of the capabilities required in simulation tools applied to voltage dip studies (characterisation, assessment, index calculations) and a representative list of procedures presented to date for voltage dip assessment in both transmission and distribution levels. The last section is aimed at providing some information about the difficulties related to voltage dip assessment when distributed generation is connected to the grid.