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Simulation of the MW =7.9 Gulf of Alaska earthquake on January 23, 2018, by the stochastic fnite fault model

Qicheng Li, Shupeng Yuan, Xinjuan Zheng

Acta Geophysica

2021

Vol. 69, no. 2

415--425

On the premise of constraining the seismogenic fault structure of a future large earthquake, we proposed using empirical equations to determine the length, width, seismic moment and slip distribution of a large seismogenic fault plane and using the stochastic fnite fault model to predict future large earthquakes. The ground motion time histories and response spectra recorded by 12 seismic stations on bedrock during the MW =7.9 Gulf of Alaska earthquake on January 23, 2018, were simulated. The simulation error determined by the average ratio of the simulated spectrum amplitude to the recorded spectrum amplitude varied between 1.08 and 0.92 in the period range of 0–10 s, and the standard deviation of the simulation error at diferent frequencies did not exceed 1; the 95% confdence interval also did not change signifcantly with the period. The above analyses show that our simulation results refect the mean ground motion. To further discuss the reliability of predicting future large earthquakes by the stochastic fnite fault model, we redistributed the initial rupture point and slip distribution on the seismogenic fault plane by the quasi-random method, and the simulation errors and simulation results of the redistribution model were similar to those of the previous model. Further research confrmed that our method for obtaining the seismic source parameters is viable and that the stochastic fnite fault model for the prediction of future large earthquakes is reliable, especially for large far-feld earthquakes. The seismic stations that we used are all situated on bedrock on one side of the fault and do not involve rupture directivity, i.e., the seismic wave pathways may be similar, so the simulation results are ideal. However, if the rupture directivity, diferent site conditions, surface topography and basin efects are considered, it will be necessary to amend the proposed method.