Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

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The influence of external environment to the ferry lines and marine passenger terminals

Krile Srećko, Maiorov Nikolai

Transport Problems

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2020

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T. 15, z. 4, cz. 2

203--214

EN

Marine passenger ports are integrated into the transport systems of cities and regions today. If there are sufficient developed mathematical forecasting models in the class of polynomial models, probability series, and a number of others, then the models describing the influence of the external environment on ferry market are not sufficient. The developed scheme of interaction between the participants of the cruise market and the mathematical model of the port as a technical system is presented in this research. The article substantiates new purposes to use the logistic function to assess the external environment. A mathematical model and the derivation of the new basic equation of the logistic function for ferry market are given. Analytical data were collected on the ports and terminals of the Adriatic Sea and the Baltic Sea, and data were selected of ship calls at the passenger port St. Petersburg “Marine Facade” (2019-2020). The article proposes the consideration of new various proportionality factors that will determine the demand for cruise transportation modeling in the short-term forecasting interval. A complete mathematical model is given taking into account the real schedule of the sea passenger port. The logistic function proposed in the article allows us to solve the forecasting problem in a new way in relation to the selection and evaluation of a cruise product. Moreover, it allows us to solve a group of economic problems related to promotion problem for particular cruise product on the market, allows us to evaluate the activity of passengers when they are choosing a cruise product, and allows us to make adjustments to the planned port working schedules and to make timely adjustments. The main advantage of the proposed model is an analytical assessment of the effect of the external environment, both on passenger ports and on ferry and cruise companies.

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Simulation of the route network and ferry traffic intensity based on the process of discretization and circos plot intensity diagram

Maiorov Nikolai, Fetisov Vladimir, Krile Srećko, Miskovic Darijo

Transport Problems

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2019

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T. 14, z. 4

21--30

EN

Today, one of the main important tasks is to analyze the states of achievement related to the required levels for marine passenger terminals and their route networks, depending on the influence of the external environment (based on the discretization of processes). This proposal is relevant both to increase the passenger traffic and to change the route network of ferry lines. There is an uneven congestion of individual directions of ferry lines and passenger terminals, which determines the need to select a finite number of states for the efficient operation of the ≪passenger terminal-ferry line≫ system. For the research of changes and assessments, it is proposed to use the process discretization methodology and the formation of a new circos plot intensity diagram. This study focuses on the passenger terminals in the Adriatic Sea and the existing route network in this region. As a result of the analysis, a set of points in time are selected that are characterized by various intensities and passenger traffic. For the selected set of values, a set of new intensity circos plot diagrams are constructed. On their basis, it is possible to analyze the mutual influence of the passenger terminals on each other to analyze the ferry transportation market and the number of shipping companies onit. New scientific approach can improve the quality of research and decision-making process for research of the ≪passenger terminal-ferry line≫ system. The practical results we can see in the form of circos plot diagrams for sea passenger transportation in the Adriatic Sea region and the proposed research methodology for research and operation analysis of the ≪ferry line - marine passenger terminal≫ system based on proces discretization.

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Forecasting of the route network of ferry and cruise lines based on simulation and intelligent transport systems

Maiorov Nikolai, Fetisov Vladimir, Krile Srećko, Miskovic Darijo

Transport Problems

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2019

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T. 14, z. 2

111--121

EN

According to statistics, the marine passenger transportation sectors (both cruise lines and ferry lines) show a significant increase of passenger traffic and the intensity of ship routes. But new features of the conditions for passenger traffic growth require the development of new methodological transport models for cruise and ferry networks and new practical forecasting methods. Changes are observed in the fleet composition, mostly in the direction of increased. New approach for forecasting has to be based on the interaction of such systems as ≪city‒sea passenger port‒cruise and ferry lines. This condition now determines new need to describe the principles and forms of organization of maritime ferry networks and changes under the influence of the external environment. The object of the research is the Baltic Sea region and the existing route networks of cruise and ferry lines. Exploring this system, the usage of new mathematical apparatus based on correspondence matrices and agent-based simulation was justified for estimating the workload on transport infrastructure around the passenger port and for the existing ferry or cruise route network. The practical results of new simulation model, on the one hand, justify the need for a comprehensive study of the conditions for the formation of ferry and cruise route networks in changing conditions. On the other hand, these new results could improve the quality of decision-making process in forecasting the route network on the basis of the research of passenger traffic between systems city‒sea terminal-cruise line or ferry line.