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1

Predicting the shipping market by spreads of timecharter rates

Yip T. L.

Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie

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2018

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nr 53 (125)

9--16

EN

This paper has explored the predictability of spreads between long-term and short-term timecharter rates on spot freight rates. The spread between long-term and short-term rates (or the slope of the yield curve) is often used as a leading economic indicator of economic activities. This concept has been extended to the shipping market in this paper and the probability that the spot freight rate will increase or decrease has been determined. Using the spread between the timecharter rates on long-term and short-term charter contracts, the direction of spot freight rates has been predicted with the dynamic probit model, which is used to estimate the probability of discrete events. Evidence has been drawn from Panamax dry bulk ships for future weekly, quarterly and biyearly changes of spot freight rates. While the dynamic probit model has shown moderate predictive power, the weekly model has shown that the market has a relatively longer memory than the quarterly and biyearly models.

2

Connections between the Dry Bulk Freight Index and the Cyclical Economic Activity of the G7 Countries

Wagner N.

Logistics and Transport

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2015

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Vol. 25, No. 1

71--82

EN

The article analyses the connections between the dry bulk freight market and the economic activity of certain countries. The objective was to confirm the existence of a similar cyclical nature for the Baltic Dry Index and main indicators of the business cycle of the G7 countries. The applied macroeconomic variables were: the real GDP and the industrial production index. In examination a spectral analysis was used. The discovered identical periodicities were analyzed in terms of time relations. It was demonstrated, that the cyclical part of the BDI (periodicity of 13.1 and 15.3 quarters) either leads or is coincident with the indicators of the business cycle. The global financial crisis in 2008-2009 showed that the behaviour of freight indices was similar to stock exchange indices and macroeconomic variables in advanced economies. It is worth to observe shipping market because higher values of freight indices could anticipate increasing demand for sea trade and economic growth.

3

Rynek demontażu statków morskich – zarys zagadnienia

Klopott M.

Logistyka

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2013

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nr 6

PL

Prawidłowo realizowany demontaż statku, połączony z odzyskiem surowców wtórnych, może być bez wątpienia przyjaznym środowisku przemysłem. Równolegle należy mieć na uwadze społeczny aspekt takiej działalności i zadbać o poprawę warunków pracy zatrudnionych. Trudno jednak nie odnieść wrażenia, że wszystkie podejmowane na świecie działania na rzecz bezpiecznego recyklingu statków są spóźnione lub implementowane opieszale, a przemysł żeglugowy niechętnie podchodzi do regulowania sfery swojej działalności. Istnieje obawa, że wzmożony okres demontażu minie zanim zapisy Konwencji z Hong Kongu czy unijnego Rozporządzenia zaczną ostatecznie obowiązywać.

EN

An average of 1400 ships will be scrapped annually over the coming years. The primary determinants underpinning an owner's decisions for ship demolition are discussed at the beginning of the paper, e.g. ship's age, obsolescence or future operating profitability of the vessel. In the subsequent section the paper focuses on the ship demolition market, concentrated in five countries, i.e. India, Bangladesh, China, Pakistan and Turkey, which account for 98% of total tonnage recycled worldwide. While the industry is an important source of steel scrap and provides thousands of jobs, it is accompanied by rough working conditions and lack of environmental protection (especially in the scraping industries of India and Bangladesh), that have become a source of public concern in the recent years. The paper ends with a brief discussion on latest EU Ship Recycling Regulation, which aims to reduce the negative impact of EU-flagged ship dismantling on the environment and human health. The regulation imposes a number of requirements on European ship owners, ship recycling facilities willing to recycle European ships, as well as on relevant authorities or administration.

4

Notowania akcji spółek sektora morskiego jako miernik sytuacji na rynku żeglugowym

Wagner N.

Logistyka

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2011

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nr 5

PL

W artykule scharakteryzowano podobieństwa i różnice występujące w szeregach czasowych notowań wybranych indeksów giełdowych oraz indeksu frachtowego BDI. Wskazano na koniunkturę na rynku żeglugowym oraz sytuację na rynku papierów wartościowych jako układ głównych sił wpływających na notowania indeksu giełdowego spółek z branży morskiej (DJ US Marine Transportation Index).

EN

This article presents similarities and differences in time series of quotations of some stock exchange indices and the Baltic Dry Index. Shipping cycles and the situation on the stock exchange were shown as the main forces which influence the quotations of marine sector (DJ US Marine Transportation).