The probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences including three models of the process of the initiating events generated by a critical infrastructure accident, the process of the environment threats and the process of environment degradation is created and adopted to the maritime transport critical infrastructure understood as a ship network operating at the sea waters and then applied to accident consequences modeling, identification and to these consequences optimization and mitigation.
There is presented the contents of the training course addressed to industry. The curriculum of the course includes the methods, algorithms and procedures for identification of the unknown parameters of the operations processes of the complex technical systems and their application in practice. It is based on theoretical backgrounds concerned with the semi-markov modelling of the complex technical systems operations processes, the statistical methods of identification of the complex technical systems operation processes. The illustrations of the proposed methods and procedures practical application in port, shipyard and maritime transport sector are included.
Basic safety structures of multi-state systems of components with degrading safety states related to their variable operation conditions are defined. For these systems the conditional and unconditional multi-state safety functions are determined. A semi-markov process for the considered systems operation modelling is applied. Further, the paper offers an approach to the solution of a practically important problem of linking the multi-state systems safety models and the systems operation processes models. Theoretical definitions and results are illustrated by the example of their application in the safety and risk evaluation of the Stena Baltica ferry operating at the Baltic Sea. The ferry transportation system has been considered in varying in time operation conditions. The system safety structure and its components safety functions were changing in variable operation conditions.
In the paper an analytical model of port transportation systems environment and infrastructure influence on their operation processes is constructed and presented in an example of shipyard rope transportation systems in Naval Shipyard in Gdynia. A general semi-markov model of a system operation process is proposed and the methods of its parameters statistical identification are presented. Further, the shipyard rope transportation system and the ship rope elevator operation processes are analyzed and their operation states are defined. A preliminary collection of statistical data necessary to the ship transportation systems’ operation processes identification is included.
The operation process of the complex industrial system is considered and its operation states are introduced. The semi-markov process is used to construct a general probabilistic model of the considered complex industrial system operation process. To build this model the vector of probabilities of the system operation process initials operation states, the matrix of probabilities of the system operation process transitions between the operation states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the system operation process conditional sojourn times in the operation states are defined. To describe the system operation process conditional sojourn times in the particular operation states the uniform distribution, the triangle distribution, the double trapezium distribution, the exponential distribution, the Weibull distribution and the normal distribution are suggested. Under these all assumptions from the constructed general model the main characteristics of the system operation process are find. The mean values of the system operation process conditional sojourn times in particular operation states having these distributions are calculated. Moreover, the unconditional distribution functions of the system operation process unconditional sojourn times in the particular operation states, the mean values of the system operation process unconditional sojourn times in the particular operation states, the limit values of the transient probabilities of the system operation process at the particular operation states and the mean values of the system operation process total sojourn times in the particular operation states are determined.
The semi-markov model of the system operation process is proposed and its selected parameters are defined. There are found reliability and risk characteristics of the multi-state series- “m out of k ” system. Next, the joint model of the semi-markov system operation process and the considered multi-state system reliability and risk is constructed. The asymptotic approach to reliability and risk evaluation of this system in its operation process is proposed as well.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.