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Spatial distribution of seismic cycle progression in northeast India and Bangladesh regions inferred from natural time analysis

Pasari Sumanta, Verma Himanshu, Sharma Yogendra, Choudhary Neha

Acta Geophysica

2023

Vol. 71, no. 1

89--100

The ability to determine the current state of seismic cycle of large sized earthquakes is of profound importance in societal policymaking and disaster preparation. In this article, we present a probabilistic formulation of event-based natural time counts to develop earthquake potential score (EPS) at 36 cities from northeast India, Bangladesh, and adjoining areas. The time-dependent natural time analysis provides an attractive regional seismic hazard evaluation method, because it (1) exhibits spatiotemporal and clustering invariability, ensuring model consistency, (2) considers "seismic cycles" for a network of faults in a defined area, and (3) enables some physical interpretations aligned with earthquake generation process characterized by stress accumulation and moment release. The modeling results for M≥6 events reveal that EPS values lie between 41 and 94%, with the scores of Agartala (91%), Aizawl (84%), Dimapur (80%), Guwahati (41%), Imphal (90%), Malda (70%), Shillong (52%), Siliguri (73%), Barisal (59%), Chittagong (94%), Comilla (88%), Dhaka (78%), Mymensingh (81%), Narayanganj (77%), Rangpur (55%), and Sylhet (60%). These values essentially serve as a yardstick to statistically assess the current state of regional seismic cycle progression in the study region, bringing out some key information to the decision-makers, engineers, scientists, and citizens to improve earthquake preparedness and mitigation strategies.

Fractal variations of the Transcarpathians, West Ukraine, seismicity and their potential relation to changing phases of local seismic cycles

Gnyp A.

Acta Geophysica

2007

Vol. 55, no. 3

288-301

The evolution of spatial arrangement of the Transcarpathian earthquakes is studied by means of fractal analysis. Spatial correlation dimension is evaluated for a subset of fixed number of catalogue events consecutively shifted in time by one event forward. Distinctive patterns that may be related to different phases of local seismic cycle/cycles have been identified, corresponding to extreme values of the dimension. Their potential relation to evolution of the seismogenic stress field is discussed. The time it takes for the capacity dimension to reach the so-called percolation threshold is estimated for a subset consecutively extended by adding next catalogue events. Temporal and spatial frames of percolation analysis are discussed in relation to parameters of the future earthquake.