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Mid-long-Term Regional Load Forecasting based on Cenzus X12-SARIMA Model

Qiao Z.-J., Li F.-I., Li Y.

Przegląd Elektrotechniczny

2013

R. 89, nr 1b

224--227

Regional power load time series has obviously trend circulation and seasonal cycle etc characteristics. In addition, using Census X12, such time series can be decomposed into trend circulation element, season element, irregular element etc. The paper attempts to establish a Census X12-SARIMA season adjustment model for mid-long-term regional power load analysis and prediction.Through empirical test for 92 months power load of Guangzhou and Suzhou area, 12 monthly power load from 2011.9 to 2012.8 was predicted. The results proved that Census X12SARIMA model is effective in mid-long-term regional power load analysis and prediction.

W artykule podjęto próbę dopasowania modelu energetycznego Census X12-SARIMA na potrzeby średnio-okresowych analiz i predykcji obciążenia energetycznego. Na podstawie testów empirycznych, opartych na danych z 92 miesięcy obciążenia energetycznego regionów Guangshou i Suzhou, stworzony został 12 miesięczny profil– 09.2011-08.2012. Wyniki dowodzą ze Census X12-SARIMA jest efektywny w analizie średnio-okresowej.

Monitoring and stochastic modelling of tectonic movements in the Simitli Graben, SW Bulgaria

Tsenko T., Dobrev N.

Reports on Geodesy

2004

nr 1/68

35--43

Clarifying the mechanism of some risky geodynamical processes could be performed using monitoring on the especially chosen sites. The obtained information is useful for studying and predicting of fault and landslide movements. For this purpose, three extensometers, type TM-71, Czech product, had been installed in 1982 at the southern parts of Simitii graben, SW Bulgaria. In the present paper, we present the results obtained by a long-term in-situ monitoring within the period 1984-2000. A stochastic modeling of the results of measurements to clarify some relationships in the behaviour of tectonic movements is applied. During the modeling, it was proposed some competitive programs - ARIMA and TRAMO/SEATS for models of temporary rows. Tendencies in the development of studied processes are established. Correlations between the tectonic movements and the temperature fluctuations are established, too. The adequateness of the models and the effectiveness of the prognoses were made using diagnostic verification of the statistical tests. The experimental investigations were performed using DEMETRA program.