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Vulnerability and adaptation of Polish coast to impact of sea-level rise (SLR)

Pruszak Z.

Archives of Hydro-Engineering and Environmental Mechanics

2001

Vol. 48, nr 2

73-90

The paper presented contains results of the latest studies on assessment of the vulner-ability of the Polish coast to sea-level rise, thus providing the synthesis, development and update of all current works in this field. Apart from a general description of the basic physical and socio-economic coastal characteristics, boundary conditions were defined for further studies on Poland's vulnerability to ASLR. For each of the four areas, into which the Polish coastal zone was divided, a synthesis of threats and vul-nerability to the expected SLR was carried out, taking into account characteristic elements and features of the regions. Basing upon two extreme scenarios of sea-level rise, i.e. ASLR1 with 30 cm/100 yrs (optimistic variant) and ASLR2 with 100 cm/100 yrs (pessimistic variant), the assessment and cost calculation of total protection measures of the endangered areas in the coastal zone related to their capital value to be lost was executed. Finally, it was found that the protective investments should mainly be undertaken on the west and east coasts, where economically justified. Because of limited funds, it is necessary to concentrate on particularly important and simultaneously strongly threatened regions. The detailed analysis of costs implies that the activities should be undertaken first on the coastal segments adjacent to Gdańsk and Szczecin, where vast agglomerations are located, with concentrated industry and related infrastructure, as well as centres of science and culture.