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Soft postglacial cliffs in Poland under climate change

Różyński Grzegorz, Cerkowniak Grzegorz

Oceanologia

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2024

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Vol. 66 (2)

319--333

EN

The paper presents the results of the simulations of soft cliff erosion in Poland under future sea level rise. Two locations were investigated: one situated on the Wolin island, and the second near the town of Ustka. The cliffs will be suffering enhanced erosion for a number of reasons. First, the adopted sea level rise of 0.7 m results in a direct attack on cliff foot, leading to enhanced erosion with rates being roughly twice as high as that occurring without the rise. A high rate of erosion can persist because the cliff cannot reconfigure itself by moving landward and will permanently remain exposed to wave attack even under milder regimes. Second, the wave climates in the Baltic Sea release most energy in close shoreline proximity. Third, longer storm event durations can lead to ‘erosion saturation’, but this result requires further investigations, which will include alongshore effects induced by local bathymetry and longshore currents, ignored in 1-D simulations. Finally, the granulometry was found less important; finer grains offer less resistance to depletion, leading to greater erosion. The results demonstrate the need for vast follow-up research: (1) detailed mapping of the bathymetry near cliffs in order to properly reproduce alongshore redistribution of sediment during storms and achieve better estimates of cliff erosion, (2) detailed mapping of cliff lithology in order to properly reproduce their sediment composition and thus achieve better estimates of built-in susceptibility to erosion, (3) preparation of 2-D modeling suites for improved assessment of the rates of erosion of cliffs subjected to sea level rise.

2

Coastal zone, key area for adaptation to sea level rise. The Gulf of Gdansk case

Zielinski Tymon, Piwowarczyk Joanna, Koroza Aleksandra

Journal of Water and Land Development

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2023

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no. 59

208--215

EN

Climate change and its consequences, including rising ocean temperature and sea level rise are well scientifically documented. The changes are especially severe for coastal communities, which are estimated to have reached c. 50% of the world’s population. Using an example of the Gulf of Gdansk region, which is of European importance, due to the presence of two major Baltic ports and global tourism, we explore, how sea related threats may affect the region and we analyse how the three major cities are prepared to these threats. The four city developmental strategies and an additional document, an “umbrella strategy” focusing on climate change threats do not consider sea level rise and more frequent storm surges as threats. The sea level rise is briefly discussed in the fourth document. The adaptation plan, an appendix to the document, mentions sea level rise, but the discussion of the problem is indirect and involves some examples of adaptation actions in loosely similar environmental conditions. The adaptation plan, in fact includes a list of possible threats, rather than a detailed discussion of the suggestions of the measures to be undertaken. For comparison, we present a multilevel approach, which is effectively run in the Port of Rotterdam and argue that such approach should be undertaken in the studied region. We conclude that despite years of education on climate change, the problem is still not recognised and is underrepresented in practical measures of the studied region. We also provide hints on how to overcome this situation.

3

Spatial Analysis of Coastal Vulnerability Index to Sea Level Rise in Biak Numfor Regency (Indonesia)

Rumahorbo Basa T., Warpur Maklon, Tanjung Rosye H. R., Hamuna Baigo

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2023

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Vol. 24, nr 3

113--125

EN

Assessing the vulnerability of coastal areas is important in evaluating impact of sea level rise due to global climate change. This study aimed to spatially analyze and map the vulnerability level of the Biak Numfor Regency’s coastal area on Biak Island to the threat of sea level rise. The study area is limited to 500 m from the coastline and is divided into 383 grid cells. The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) method was used to map the level of vulnerability of coastal areas based on four coastal geological variables (coastal elevation, coastal slope, geomorphology, and shoreline change) and three ocean physical process variables (tidal range, average significant wave height, and relative sea level rise). The results showed that the coastal areas of Biak Numfor Regency, belonging to the low, medium and high-risk vulnerability categories, were 77,685.63 km (32.18%), 159,084.38 km (65.74%), and 5,024.96 km (2.08%), respectively. The variables that contribute significantly to the level of vulnerability are coastal elevation, coastal slope, coastal geomorphology, and shoreline changes due to abrasion compared to tidal range, significant wave heights, and sea level rise rates. Vulnerability studies of other variables that can contribute to the vulnerability of coastal areas are needed, such as socio-economic variables and the impact of human activities on changes in the coastal environment, to obtain a comprehensive CVI value in supporting coastal mitigation planning efforts against sea level rise disasters so that they are more focused.

4

Improved Performance of Geospatial Model to Access the Tidal Flood Impact on Land Use by Evaluating Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence Parameters

Zainuri Muhammad, Helmi Muhammad, Novita Maria Griselda Anindyan, Kusumaningrum Hermin Pancasakti, Koch Magaly

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2022

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Vol. 23, nr 2

1--11

EN

In the 20th century, climate change caused an increase in temperature that accelerated the rate of sea level. Sea level rise and land subsidence threaten densely populated coastal areas as well as lowlands because they cause tidal flooding. Tidal floods occur every year due to an increase in sea level rise and land subsidence. The lack of information on this phenomenon causes delays in disaster mitigation, leading to serious problems. This study was conducted to predict the area of tidal flood inundation on land use in 2020 to 2035. This research was performed in Pekalongan Regency, as one of the areas experiencing large land subsidence and sea level rise. The research data to be used were tides and the value of soil subsidence, as well as sea level rise. Digital Terrain Model (DTM) was obtained through a topographic survey. Modeling was used for DTM reconstruction based on land subsidence and sea level rise every year. The sea level rise value uses the satellite altimetry data from 1993–2018. A field survey was conducted to validate the inundation model that has been created. Land subsidence was processed using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image data with Single Band Algorithm (SBA) differential interferometry. This study proved that tidal flooding has increased every year where in 2020 it was 783.99 hectares, but with the embankment there was a reduction in inundation area of 1.68 hectares. The predicted area of tidal flood inundation in 2025, 2030 and 2035 without the embankment is 3388.98 hectares, 6523.19 hectares, 7578.94 hectares, while with the embankment in 2035 is 1686.62 hectares. The research results showed that the use of embankments is a solution for coastal mitigation as well as regional planning.

5

Prediction of wetland loss due to sea level rise around the largest port area in Latin America

Alfredini P., Arasaki E.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2021

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Vol. 15 No. 3

677--682

EN

Santos’s mangroves are important wetlands located in Brazilian coast, a fishing area inside Santos Bay. The overall healthy mangroves area along the riparian zones influencing the Santos Estuary is around 25.20 km2. The resulting tidal level recorded from Port of Santos tide gauge (from 1940 to 2014), also located in the estuary, shows consistent increasing trend. One healthy mangrove was selected for a previous qualitative biological survey to better understand the characteristics of the habitat to be monitored and evaluated about the possible impacts in the next decades. The mangroves situated a few meters upper from the sea level and some other areas have the risk to be submerged till 2085 which will seriously affect the riparian mangroves biome. Indeed, the mangrove area is confined downward by the low tide level and upward by existing structures, roads, rural and urban areas.

6

Assessment of coastal vulnerability in Chabahar Bay due to climate change scenarios

Armanfar Mahmoudreza, Goharnejad Hamid, Niri Mahmoud Zakeri, Perrie Will

Oceanologia

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2019

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No. 61 (4)

412--426

EN

A substantial body of research has shown that two key factors of global sea level rise are thermal expansion and melting of land-based ice, glaciers and ice sheets. Moreover, climate change may result in changes to wind speeds and directions, consequently resulting in contributions to variations in wind-wave components, wave heights and directions. In this research, climate change scenarios were used to assess the coastal vulnerability to the Chabahar port area due to global sea level rise, significant wave height changes and tidal regime effects. These three items were calculated separately using numerical models and the impacts of possible climate change scenarios were applied to estimate possible changes to these items by 2100. Significant wave heights for 25, 50 and 100-year return periods were evaluated. Based on statistical analysis, the maximum significant wave heights for the A2 and A1B scenarios were estimated at approximately 13.7 and 7.6, respectively. Since the main aim of this research was to assess the coastal zones at higher flood risk, therefore the mean global sea level rise, extreme values of significant wave heights and tidal heights were investigated. The height of sea during sea storms and for the most extreme case was calculated as 17.3 m and 11.2 m for A2 and the A1B scenarios, respectively. According to output maps of inundation areas, large coastal zones in the Chabahar port area are at risk due to the sea storms and possible climate change.

7

Vulnerability assessment of southern coastal areas of Iran to sea level rise : evaluation of climate change impact

Goharnejad H., Shamsai A., Hosseini S. A.

Oceanologia

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2013

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No. 55 (3)

611--637

EN

Recent investigations have demonstrated global sea level rise as being due to climate change impact. Probable changes in sea level rise need to be evaluated so that appropriate adaptive strategies can be implemented. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on sea level rise along the Iranian south coast. Climatic data simulated by a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under two-climate change scenarios A1b and A2 are used to investigate the impact of climate change. Among the different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves are selected for predicting sea level rise by using stepwise regression. Two Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) models and a Discrete Wavelet Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference system (DWANFIS) are developed to explore the relationship between selected climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelets are used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components. ANFIS/ANN are then used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictand (sea level) to each other. The results show a significant rise in sea level in the study region under climate change impact, which should be incorporated into coastal area management.

8

Assessing flood risk and detecting changes of salt water inflow in a coastal micro-tidal brackish marsh using GIS

Urbański J.A., Ślimak A.

Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies

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2008

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Vol. 37, No.3

3-20

EN

In order to assess changes in salt water inflow and potential flood risks due to sea level rise in a micro-tidal Beka brackish marsh on the Polish Baltic Coast GIS was used. Such wetlands are important elements of coastal zone natural environments. Creating a geodatabase within a GIS system makes it possible to carry out broad analyses of complex systems, such as coastal wetlands. The results indicate that a 40 cm sea-level rise would considerably increase the frequency of flooding in the investigated area, in part because of the small range of the annual sea level oscillations there. A map of the index of changes in saltwater inflow, created with the help of cost-weighted distance (functions), shows that changes which have occurred along the shore, consisting of filling in the drainage channel outlets, have likely had a significant impact on the vegetation of the area.

9

Zmiany klimatu - Nowy raport Międzyrządowego Panelu ds. Zmian Klimatycznych (IPCC)

Marzec A.

Polityka Energetyczna

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2007

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T. 10, z. 1

97-103

PL

Artykuł stanowi skrócony opis informacji zawartych w czwartym Raporcie IPCC na temat zmian klimatu. Przedstawiono dotychczasowe zmiany, m.in. wzrost średniej globalnej temperatury w okresie ostatnich kilku lato0,8°C (w porównaniu z latami 1850-1900), wzrost poziomu oceanów i wzrost częstotliwości występowania dni gorących. Zreferowano prognozy dalszych zmian w XXI w., oparte o różne scenariusze rozwoju globalnej sytuacji gospodarczej i postępu technologicznego.

EN

The paper summarizes information on climate changes presented in the recent IPCC report ("Summary for Policymakers"; February 2007). The changes until now have been described, such as the 0.8°C increase of global average temperaturę in a few recent years (compared to 1850-2000 years); sea level rise and an increase in freąuency of hot days. Next, climate forecasts for XXI century have been reported that were derived from various scenarios of futurę global economy and technology development.

10

Future sea level change: a transboundary problem in the baltic sea region? - seareg case study area Gdańsk

Staudt M., Kordalski Z.

Polish Geological Institute Special Papers

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2005

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Vol. 18

86-92

EN

The Interreg IIIB project Sea Level Change Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region (SEAREG) addresses socio-economic and environmental aspects of the sea level rise in the Baltic Sea region (BSR). A rise of the sea level might lead to major flooding events, having severe impacts on the spatial development of cities and regions of the BSR. Ocean models and land uplift or land subsidence rates are factors that must be taken into account in addressing flood prone areas. One of the projects case study areas was city of Gdańsk. The Gdańsk region is a subject to land subsidence of 1- 2 mm/year. The low lying areas on the coastal terrace and on the Vistula Delta plain contain the most important aquifers for public water supply. For the Gdańsk region, the project’s sea level rise scenarios vary from 0.03 m (low case), 0.48 m (ensemble average), up to 0.97 m (high case). In the course of an impact and vulnerability assessment, the impact zones are superimposed with existing land use data. These flood-prone areas should be protected in the future and countermeasures have to be taken to mitigate danger of future flooding.

PL

Projekt "Sea Level Change Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region" SEAREG, unijnego programu Interreg IIIB porusza społeczno-ekonomiczne i środowiskowe skutki zmian klimatu w regionie Morza Bałtyckiego (BSR), w szczególności związane z podnoszeniem się poziomu morza oraz zmianami odpływu z sieci rzecznej. Te dwa czynniki mogą prowadzić do wystąpienia katastrofalnych w skutkach powodzi, wpływających bezpośrednio na zagospodarowanie przestrzenne miast, jak również na zrównoważony rozwój całego regionu Morza Bałtyckiego. Jednym z miejsc objętych szczegółowym rozpoznaniem w ramach projektu był Gdańsk. W obrębie miasta na nisko położonych obszarach tarasu nadmorskiego i Żuław Wiślanych zlokalizowane są ujęcia wód podziemnych, ważne dla zaopatrzenia w wodę do picia i na potrzeby gospodarcze. Dla Gdańska strefy zagrożone powodzią i podtopieniami zostały wyznaczone przy pomocy oprogramowania GIS, z wykorzystaniem wysoko rozdzielczych regionalnych modeli oceanograficznych, modeli powierzchni terenu i planów zagospodarowania przestrzennego. Opracowano 3 scenariusze, według których poziom morza w ciągu następnych 100 lat wzrośnie w rejonie Gdańska odpowiednio o 0,03, 0,48 i 0,97 m.