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1
Content available Modelling, identification and prediction of oil spill domains at port and sea water areas
Dąbrowska Ewa, Kołowrocki Krzysztof
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2019
|
Vol. 10, No. 1
43--58
EN
Methods of oil spill domains determination are reviewed and a new method based on a probabilistic approach to the solution of this problem is recommended. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. To describe the oil spill domain central point position a two-dimensional stochastic process is used. Parametric equations of oil spill domain central point drift trend curve for different kinds of hydro-meteorological conditions are determined. The general model of oil spill domain determination for various hydro-meteorological conditions is proposed. Moreover, statistical methods of this general model unknown parameters estimation are proposed. These methods are presented in the form of algorithms giving successive steps which should be done to evaluate these unknown model parameters on the base of statistical data coming from experiments performed at the sea. Moreover, approximate expected stochastic prediction and Monte Carlo Simulation in real time prediction of the oil spill domain movement are proposed.
2
Content available Optimization of critical infrastructure accident consequences related to cliamte-weather change process influence - losses minimizing
Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2018
|
Vol. 9, No. 1
11--16
EN
The methods based on the results of the General Model of Critical Infrastructure Accident Consequences and the linear programming are proposed to the optimization of critical infrastructures accident consequences with considering the climate-weather change process influence. The critical infrastructure accident consequences determining the optimal values of limit transient probabilities at the process of environment degradation states that minimize the critical infrastructure accident expected value of the total environment losses impacted by the climate-weather change for the fixed time interval are proposed.
3
Content available Chemical Spill Due to Extreme Sea Surges. Critical Infrastructure Chemical Accident (Spill) Consequences. Related to Climate-Weather Change
Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2018
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Vol. 9, No. 2
65--78
EN
The paper contains the detailed description, preparatory work and necessary data for conduction of Case Study 2: Storm and Sea Surge at Baltic Sea Port, Scenario 2: Chemical Spill Due to Extreme Sea Surges – Critical Infrastructure Chemical Accident (Spill) Consequences Related to Climate-Weather Change in the scope of the EU-CIRCLE project. The general model of critical accident consequences was applied to chemical spill consequences generated by dynamic ship critical infrastructure network operating at the Baltic Sea waters. The approach to the prediction of critical infrastructure accident consequences is proposed. Moreover, the cost analysis of losses associated with the consequences of chemical spill, without and with considering the climate-weather impact, is proposed.
4
Content available Ship Accidents of Last 30 Years at Maritime Ferry Baltic Sea Operating Area
Bogalecka M., Jakusik E., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 4
147--154
EN
The paper deals with the sea accidents that have occurred at the domain of a passenger Ro-Ro ship operating at the Baltic Sea between Gdynia and Karlskrona ports during last three decades. The accidents are grouped into two sets, that happened at the open waters and those at the port waters. Next, for each accident, the climateweather change process conditions are identified to examine the weather hazards influence on the considered accidents.
5
Content available General Model of Critical Infrastructure Accident Consequences Application to Chemical Spill Consequences Generated by Dynamic Ship Critical Infrastructure Network Operating at the Baltic Sea Waters. Part 1. Process of Initiating Events
Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 3
117--122
EN
In the paper, the process of initiating events at the Baltic Sea area identification is performed. Next, the main characteristics of this process are predicted.
6
Content available General Model of Critical Infrastructure Accident Consequences Application to Chemical Spill Consequences Generated by Dynamic Ship Critical Infrastructure Network Operating at the Baltic Sea Waters. Part 2. Process of Environment Threats
Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 3
123--130
EN
In the paper, the process of environment threats at the Baltic Sea area identification is performed. Next, the main characteristics of this process are predicted.
7
Content available General Model of Critical Infrastructure Accident Consequences Application to Chemical Spill Consequences Generated by Dynamic Ship Critical Infrastructure Network Operating at the Baltic Sea Waters. Part 3. Process of Environment Degradation
Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 3
131--138
EN
In the paper, the process of environment degradation at the Baltic Sea area identification is performed. Next, the main characteristics of this process are predicted.
8
Content available Data Collection of Last 30 Years Ship Accidents at the Baltic Sea Area
Bogalecka M., Jakusik E., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 4
125--134
EN
The paper contains data collection of more than 100 sea accidents that have happened at the Baltic Sea area for last three decades. These accidents are classified according to kind and range of the casualty. Moreover, the location and weather parameters during the sea accidents are given.
9
Content available Baltic Sea Port Waters Extreme Events of Last 30 Years Caused by Climate-Weather Hazards
Bogalecka M., Jakusik E., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 4
141--146
EN
The paper deals with the sea accidents that have occurred at the Baltic Sea port waters for last three decades. For each accident, the climate-weather change process state is fixed to examine the weather hazard influence on this accident. Moreover, the Baltic Sea port waters accidents caused by the extreme weather hazard states are described.
10
Content available Baltic Sea Open Waters Extreme Events of Last 30 Years Caused by Climate-Weather Hazards
Bogalecka M., Jakusik E., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2017
|
Vol. 8, No. 4
135--140
EN
The paper deals with the sea accidents that have occurred at the Baltic Sea open waters for last three decades. For each accident, the climate-weather change process state is fixed to examine the weather hazard influence on this accident. Moreover, the Baltic Sea open waters accidents caused by the extreme weather hazard states are described.
11
Content available Modelling critical infrastructure accident consequences – an overall approach
Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2016
|
Vol. 7, No. 3
1--14
EN
In the paper the probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences (GMCIAC) including the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation models is proposed. Next, the methods of its parameters statistical identification are presented. Futher, the marine traffic across the world and sea accidents were observed. Their initiating events and environment threats coming from released chemical substances as well as environment degradations in the neighbourhood region of sea accident were analysed. Then, the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation were analysed and their states are distinguised.
12
Content available Analysis of sea accidents (2002–2015)
Dyrcz C.
Annual of Navigation
|
2016
|
No. 23
151--157
EN
In the paper the issue of maritime safety is presented. Most of the modern world trade is carried by sea, where maritime safety plays a key role. The article also presents the analysis of marine casualties at the beginning of the 21st century, covering the years 2002–2015. Apparent systematic steady decline in accidents and total losses of vessels is the result of improved maritime safety.
PL
W artykule została przedstawiona problematyka bezpieczeństwa morskiego. Współczesna światowa wymiana handlowa odbywa się w znaczącym procencie drogą morską, gdzie bezpieczeństwo morskie ma kluczowe znaczenie. W pracy dokonana została analiza wypadków morskich początku XXI wieku obejmująca lata 2002–2015. Przyjmuje się, że widoczny systematyczny spadek liczby wypadków morskich oraz całkowitych strat jednostek pływających to wpływ poprawy warunków bezpieczeństwa morskiego.
13
Wiek statku a prawdopodobieństwo wystąpienia wypadku na morzu : analiza współzależności
Bogalecka M.
Logistyka
|
2015
|
nr 3
515--520, CD 1
PL
Nasilenie migracji ludzi oraz obrotu towarów drogą morską przyniósł natężenie na szlakach żeglugowych. Stworzyło to zagrożenie dla środowiska naturalnego ze względu na obserwowany wzrost wypadków statków na obszarach morskich. Celem opisanych badań było określenie związku pomiędzy wiekiem statku, a prawdopodobieństwem jego uczestniczenia w wypadku na morzu. Do zbadania tej zależności zastosowano analizę regresji, opartą na danych pochodzących z powypadkowych raportów, gromadzonych przez Międzynarodową Organizację Morską. Stworzony model regresji wykładniczej w najbardziej odpowiedni sposób opisuje badaną zależność. Wykazano, że istnieje silna korelacja pomiędzy wiekiem statku, a prawdopodobieństwem jego uczestniczenia w wypadku na morzu. Na podstawie przeprowadzonej analizy stwierdzono, że największe prawdopodobieństwo uczestniczenia w wypadku na morzu wykazują statki bardziej wyeksploatowane, tj. 15-17-letnie. Uzasadnione jest zatem poddawanie ich bardziej restrykcyjnym kontrolom, sprawdzającym ich stan techniczny i na tej podstawie dopuszczającym do żeglugi.
EN
The sea transport of goods and people increased significantly over the last decades. Consequently, the marine ecosystem is more threaten because the number of sea accidents has risen. The assessment of the interrelation between the age of ships and the probability of sea accident was the goal of the paper. The regression analysis was used to examine this interdependence. The analysis was based on the data coming from the International Maritime Organization sea accident reports. The proposed exponential regression model describes the interrelation is the fittest one. It was shown that the correlation between the age of ship and the sea accident probability is strong. It was fund that over tan years’ ships (15-17 years old) and more exploited are more frequently involved in the sea accidents. From the point of view this investigation the more restrictive controls of the older ships are indispensable.
14
Content available The process of sea environment threats generated by hazardous chemicals release
Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
|
2015
|
Vol. 6, No. 1
67--76
EN
The kinds of threats coming from chemicals released as a result of sea accident are distinguished. An exemplary procedure of defining states of the sea environment threats process generated by hazardous chemicals is presented. The interrelation between the sea environment threats and this environment degradation process is discussed and finally, a preliminary approach to a general modelling and prediction of the process of the environment threats caused by the process of initiating events generated by critical infrastructure accidents is presented.
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