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1
Content available Random processes related to accidents on Baltic Sea waters and ports
Grabski Franciszek
Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
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2020
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Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020
91--99
EN
A crucial role in construction of the models related to accidents on the Baltic Sea water and ports play nonhomogeneous Poisson and nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process. The model of consequences and connected to it model of accidents number on sea and seaports are here presented. Moreover some procedures of the models parameters identification are presented in the chapter. Estimation of model some parameters was made based on data from reports of HELCOM and Interreg project Baltic LINes.
2
Content available Safety analysis of interdependent critical infrastructure networks
Blokus A., Dziula P.
TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
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2019
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Vol. 13. no. 4
781--787
EN
Certain critical infrastructure networks show some interconnections, relations and interactions with other ones, most frequently when located and operating within particular areas. Failures arising within one critical infrastructure network, can then negatively impact not only on associated systems, societies and natural environment, but also on mutual critical infrastructure networks. Therefore, interdependent critical infrastructure networks can be determined as network of critical infrastructure networks (network of networks approach). The paper presents safety analysis of the network of critical infrastructure networks, taking into account interconnections, relations and interactions between particular ones. Critical infrastructures networks as multistate systems are considered, by distinguishing subsets of no-hazards safety states, and crisis situation states, and by analysing transitions between particular ones. Issues introduced in the article are based on the assumption that one key critical infrastructure network impacts on functioning of other critical infrastructure networks - can reduce their functionality and change level of their safety and inoperability, furthermore, other networks can impact each other, too. Safety characteristics of network of critical infrastructure networks: safety function, mean values and standard deviations of lifetimes in particular safety state subsets, are determined, taking into account interdependencies between particular networks. The results are related to various values of coefficients defining the significance of influence of interdependencies among networks.
3
Content available Nonhomogeneous stochastic processes connected to Poisson process
Grabski F.
Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Marynarki Wojennej
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2018
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R. 59 nr 2 (213)
5--15
EN
Some generalizations of the Poisson process and their properties are presented in the paper. The non-homogeneous Poisson process allows to construct a probabilistic model describing the different kinds of accidents number. The nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process enables to describe mathematically the various types of accidents consequences. Theoretical results give possibility to anticipate the accidents number and their consequences.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono wybrane uogólnienia procesu Poissona i ich własności. Skupiono się na dwóch uogólnieniach — niejednorodnym procesie Poissona i niejednorodnym złożonym procesie Poissona. Niejednorodny proces Poissona pozwala na skonstruowanie modelu probabi-listycznego opisującego liczbę różnych rodzajów wypadków. Niejednorodny złożony proces Poissona pozwala matematycznie opisywać konsekwencje tych wypadków. Przedstawione tu wyniki teoretyczne dają możliwość przewidywania liczby wypadków i ich konsekwencji.
4
Content available Nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process application to modeling of random processes related to accidents in the Baltic Sea waters and ports
Grabski F.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2018
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Vol. 9, No. 3
21--30
EN
A crucial role in construction of the models related to accidents on Baltic Sea water and ports play nonhomogeneous Poisson and nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process. The model of consequences and connected to it model of accidents number on Baltic sea waters and ports are here presented. Moreover some procedures of the models parameters identification are presented in the paper. Estimation of some model parameters was made based on data from reports of HELCOM [10, 11], Interreg project Baltic LINes [9] and EMSA [13].
5
Content available Nonhomogenous Poisson process application to modelling accidents number at Baltic Sea waters and ports
Grabski F.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2017
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Vol. 8, No. 1
39--46
EN
The stochastic processes theory provides concepts and theorems that allow to build probabilistic models concerning incidents or (and) accidents. Counting processes are applied for modelling accidents number in Baltic Sea region in the given time interval. A crucial role in construction of the models plays a Poisson process and its extensions especially a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. The models of accidents number in the sea and seaports are here presented. Moreover some procedures of the model parameters identification are presented in the paper. Estimation of model parameters was made based on data from reports of HELCOM (2014) and Interreg project Baltic LINes (2016-2019).
6
Content available Constructing stochastic models for investigation of dangerous events and accidents number in Baltic Sea region ports
Grabski F.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2016
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Vol. 7, No. 1
73--78
EN
The stochastic processes theory provides concepts and theorems that allow to build probabilistic models concerning incidents or (and) accidents. Counting processes are applied for modelling number of the dangerous events and accidents number in Baltic Sea region ports in the given time intervals. A crucial role in construction of the models plays a Poisson process and its generalizations. Three models of the incidents or (and) accidents number in the seaports are here constructed. Moreover some procedures of the model parameters identification and the computer procedures for anticipation of the dangerous events number are presented in the paper.
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