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Selected problems of risk evaluation of change in certified civil aviation organisations

Markiewicz Telesfor Marek, Markowski Piotr

Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska

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2022

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z. 114

79--89

EN

This article presents some of the generalised results of this research conducted in the form of a diagnostic survey among Safety Managers and a review of safety risk management procedures, including the rules of change risk evaluation, applied in selected civil aviation organisations subject to the survey. This publication aimed to put them under the discussion of experts interested in the issues. Important problems resulting from the necessity to meet general guidelines standardising processes of risk management, formulated in international law regulations [2], as well as in advisory materials of the International Civil Aviation Organisation [6-8], and others [3, 4], including national ones [11], in confrontation with the need for their practical application, were described. Concerning the general rule of risk evaluation described there, inconsistencies in interpretation of the scale of probability and frequency indices and their influence on the evaluation context were pointed out. A model, considering the time aspect in Event Tree Analysis - ETA procedures based on [5, 9], was proposed. Perceived threats to the results of change risk evaluation caused by applying the "the worst foreseeable situation" principle were described. A different approach in the evaluation of change risk based on a comprehensive assessment of the impact of all identified risks on the defined effect was also proposed. Proposals were made to eliminate the disadvantage resulting from the definition of the probability index value – "extremely improbate".

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Voice on quantitative methods in risk management by an air operator

Makowski Piotr

Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska

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2020

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z. 109

103--116

EN

This article is devoted to the diagnosis of problems arising from risk management obligations under the safety management system implemented in civil organisations of certified air operators (carriers). Focus was on the use of quantitative methods in safety risk analysis. The idea of an approach to determine the probability of accidents and serious incidents based on the intensity of symptoms with lower consequences and risk factors as a function of time or number of performed air operations was proposed, based on Markov discrete processes [6,10-12,16]. The essence of this approach is explained by the mathematical model of Runway Excursion probability during landing operations. The concept of improvement of operators' cooperation in the exchange of information about safety indicators by profiling the organisation was presented. The last proposal concerns the construction of a comprehensive risk assessment indicator using a safety risk matrix.

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Ryzyko w dokumentach strategicznych państw i organizacji

Grodzki G.

Wiedza Obronna

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2016

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nr 3-4

5--38

PL

Artykuł analizuje ryzyko w dynamicznym środowisku bezpieczeństwa, charakteryzowanym przez czynniki strategiczne uwzględniając ich wzajemne relacje. Zrozumienie roli ryzyka w strategii oraz w studiach nad bezpieczeństwem prowadzi do właściwego zrozumienia ryzyka w strategiach bezpieczeństwa narodowego XXI wieku. Nowy kierunek w myśleniu strategicznym jest ukierunkowanie na ryzyko nie na zagrożenia. Na bazie wniosków polska Strategia Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego powinna być ponownie potwierdzona.

EN

The article analysis risk in a dynamic security environment characterised by strategic factors and relations between them. Understanding of risk in a strategy and in security studies lead up to understanding of national security strategies of the 21st Century. New mind-set in strategic thinking is focusing on risk not on threats. On the base of the conclusions National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland need to be reaffirm.