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Estimating the number of accidents on Poland's roads based on the kind of road

Gorzelańczyk Piotr

Archiwum Motoryzacji

2024

Vol. 106, nr 4

5--17

On Polish highways, a staggering number of individuals pass away each year. The quantity is still quite large even if the value is declining year after year. The value of traffic accidents has greatly decreased due to the epidemic, but it is still quite high. In order to reduce this number, it is required to identify the roads where the majority of accidents occur and to understand the predicted number of accidents in the upcoming years. The article's goal is to predict how many accidents will occur on Polish roads based on the kind of roads. In order to achieve this, yearly data from the Police's statistics for the years 2001–2021 on the number of accidents in Poland were analyzed, and a prediction for the years 2022–2024 was generated. As is evident, either the number of accidents is rising or it is stabilizing. This is mostly caused by the rise in automobile traffic. Additionally, predictions indicate that given the existing circumstances, a significant rise in the number of accidents on Polish roads may be anticipated. This is especially evident on the nation's growing number of freeways. It should be remembered that the current epidemic distorts the findings. Selected time series models were used in the investigation in Statistica.