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EN
River discharge is affected by many factors, such as water level, rainfall, and precipitation. This study proposes a new hybrid framework named LAES (LASSO-ANN-EMD-SVM) to model the relationship of daily river discharge with meteorological variables. This hybrid framework is a composite of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), an artificial neural network (ANN), and an error correction method. In the first stage, LASSO identifies meteorological variables that have a significant influence on the generation of river discharge. Next, the ANN model is used to predict river discharge using meteorological variables selected by LASSO, and the error series is determined. The error series is decomposed into intrinsic mode functions and residuals using empirical mode decomposition (EMD). The EMD components are modeled using the support vector machine (SVM) model, and the error predictions are aggregated. In the last stage, the LASSO-ANN predictions and the predicted error series are aggregated as the final discharge prediction. The proposed hybrid framework is illustrated on the Kabul River of Pakistan. The performance of the proposed hybrid framework is compared with six models using various performance measures and the Diebold-Mariano test. These models include multiple linear regression (MLR), SVM, ANN, LASSO-MLR, LASSO-SVM, and LASSO-ANN models. The findings reveal that the proposed hybrid model outperforms all other models considered in the study. In the testing phase, the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) of the proposed LAES hybrid model are 337.143 m3/s, 32.354%, and 218.353 m3/s which are smaller than all other models compared in the study. Our proposed hybrid system is an efficient model for river discharge prediction that will be helpful in water management and protection against floods. Long-term prediction can help to identify the major effects of climate change and to make evidence-based environmental policies.
2
Content available remote A tale of two stations: a note on rejecting the Gumbel distribution
EN
The existence of an upper limit for extremes of quantities in the earth sciences, e.g. for river discharge or wind speed, is sometimes suggested. Estimated parameters in extreme-value distributions can assist in interpreting the behaviour of the system. Using simulation, this study investigated how sample size influences the results of statistical tests and related interpretations. Commonly used estimation techniques (maximum likelihood and probability-weighted moments) were employed in a case study; the results were applied in judging time series of annual maximum river flow from two stations on the same river, but with different lengths of observation records. The results revealed that sample size is crucial for determining the existence of an upper bound.
EN
This study is aimed at evaluating the applicability of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model technique for river discharge forecasting. Feed-forward multilayer perceptron neural network trained with back-propagation algorithm was employed for model development. Hydro-meteorological data for the Imo River watershed, that was collected from the Anambra-Imo River Basin Development Authority, Owerri – Imo State, South-East, Nigeria, was used to train, validate and test the model. Coefficients of determination results are 0.91, 0.91 and 0.93 for training, validation and testing periods respectively. River discharge forecasts were fitted against actual discharge data for one to five lead days. Model results gave R2 values of 0.95, 0.95, 0.92, 0.96 and 0.94 for first, second, third, fourth, and fifth lead days of forecasts, respectively. It was generally observed that the R2 values decreased with increase in lead days for the model. Generally, this technique proved to be effective in river discharge modelling for flood forecasting for shorter lead-day times, especially in areas with limited data sets.
4
Content available remote The water resources of tropical West Africa: problems, progress, and prospects
EN
West Africa plays key roles in global climate and shows one of the strongest variations in hydro-climatic conditions. As it turns out, the region appears to be underrepresented in the existing compendium of Earth science and hydrology-focused journal papers when it comes to significant discussion on terrestrial hydrology and freshwater science. This prominent gap is largely precipitated by increasing number of constraints that include lack of considerable and robust investments in gauge measurements for meteorological and hydrological applications, poor funding of research institutions and other disincentives, among other factors. In this manuscript, the challenges and problems in large-scale terrestrial hydrology-focused investigation in West Africa are reviewed. Using a dossier of some recent contributions in the field of remote sensing hydrology, this review also highlights some of the progress in terrestrial hydrology and the opportunities that exist for hydro-geodetic research in West Africa that leverage on sustained investments in satellite geodetic missions. It is noted that West Africa is still a pristine environment for hydrology-focused research and can benefit from recent advancements in sophisticated space agency programs such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, which undoubtedly has revolutionized terrestrial hydrology research around the world for nearly two decades. Given the poor density of gauge stations and limited ground observations, hydrological research in West Africa is expected to benefit more from independent space observations and multi-resolution data. This is because the lack of sufficient in-situ data for the parameterizations and adequate initialization of outputs from hydrological models and reanalysis data for hydrological applications results in poor representation of the West African land surface and hydrological state variables. To further improve our contemporary understanding of West Africa’s terrestrial hydrology, the continued evaluation/validation of these observations and space-borne measurements is advocated.
EN
Ecotones, as for example riparian zones, have long interested ecologists, due to their potential role in generating species biodiversity and evolutionary novelty, as well as their sensitivity to environmental changes. Along riparian areas, vegetation is recognized for its ecological importance in several ecosystemic processes. In the Central Monte Desert (central-west Argentina), Prosopis flexuosa grows in territories characterized by a permanent access to water reservoirs, e.g. along riverbanks, where the species forms the classic gallery forests. Despite the ecosystemic role of the different Prosopis species distributed in arid lands, thus far no analysis has been conducted regarding the relation between their radial growth and hydrological changes, namely streamflow variability, in riparian settings. To fill this gap of knowledge, we performed a dendrochronological analysis considering several riparian P. flexuosa trees differing in their spatial position in relation to the riverbank. Pointer years, correlation function, and regression analyses show differences in the dendrohydrological signal of the studied species, probably function of tree distance from the river. In this sense, radial growth of trees distributed near the riverbank is tightly coupled to spring-summer (September to March) streamflow variability, whereas for farthest trees the ring development is driven by a combination of winter and spring river discharge and late-summer precipitation amount. The presented results demonstrate the potentiality of P. flexuosa, and in a broader sense of the Prosopis genus, in dendrohydrological studies.
EN
The River Vistula is one of the largest suppliers of fresh water and terrigenous matter to the Baltic Sea. The impact of this river on the Baltic coastal system and the fate of the sediment delivered to the Gulf of Gdańsk are not well understood. Spatial transport patterns, as well as the settling, deposition and accumulation of the sediments were studied at the Vistula prodelta in different seasons from January 2012 to January 2013. The concentration of suspended matter in the water column was measured with optical methods, the sedimentation rate was determined with sediment traps, and the sediment accumulation rate was estimated using 210Pb dating. Our data shows that the annual supply of sediment to the sediment-water interface exceeds the annual rate of sediment accumulation in the outer Vistula prodelta by a factor of three. Sediment trapping during rough weather showed that significant sediment redeposition was taking place, even at depths of 55 m. The dynamic sedimentary processes occurring in the Vistula prodelta mean that that more than two-thirds of the sediment mass can be remobilized and then redeposited in deeper parts of the Gdańsk Basin.
EN
The article presents a simulation of urbanization impact on runoff changes in an urbanized catchment. Application of a distributed hydrological WetSpa model enabled comprehensive use of Landsat satellite images as a source of data about contemporary and historical land cover in the catchment. The analyses conducted for the Biała river catchment, with over 60% of the area being urbanized, revealed a significant influence of changes in the size of urbanized area on runoff hydrograph.
EN
The Pomeranian Bay (southern Baltic Sea) is a component of the river Oder (Odra) estuarine system. It receives the Oder's discharge once it has passed through the Szczecin Lagoon, a eutrophic and polluted water body. The discharge has been documented as affecting the hydrography of the pelagic domain as well as the sedimentary environments and the macrozoobenthos of the Bay. This study focused on the distribution of meiobenthic communities in the Bay as investigated with the use of a suite of uni- and multivariate analyses applied to data collected at 14 stations in September 1993. Meiobenthic community characteristics (composition and abundance) are presented in relation to sediment properties (grain size, silt/clay and organic matter content), changing with distance from the major riverine discharge site. The communities studied showed a clear distinction between those associated with organic matter-enriched sediments close to the discharge site and the assemblages living in clean sands, away from the discharge. We conclude that the meiobenthos can be regarded as another compartment of the Pomeranian Bay system responding to the River Oder discharge.
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