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1

A simple tool for evaluating the risks related to hazardous interactions between the processes realized in the Baltic Sea Region port areas

Malinowski J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2018

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Vol. 9, No. 3

39--46

EN

This paper is a continuation of [1] which presents a probabilistic model of hazard-related interactions between different operations carried out in a (generic) Baltic Sea Region port area. Each such operation, considering its hazardous aspect, is defined as a series of undesired events (emergencies and/or accidents) occurring at random instants, i.e. as a random process. An event can be primary (occurring by itself) or secondary (caused by another event in the same or another process). The processes interact in the sense that a primary event in one process can cause a cascade of events spanning multiple processes. In [1] the formulas were derived for the cause-effect probabilities expressing the impact of a single event on the occurrence of the ensuing events in the triggered cascade. Also, the formulas for risks of undesired events, using these probabilities, were obtained. As these formulas are complicated and difficult to implement numerically, the need arose to develop a simple tool for computing the considered risks. Such a tool, in the form of an easy-toimplement algorithm, along with an illustrative example is presented in the current work.

2

Modeling hazard-related interactions between the processes realized in and around the Baltic Sea Region ports

Malinowski J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2017

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Vol. 8, No. 1

87--96

EN

This paper presents a probabilistic model of hazard-related interdependence between the operations carried out in the ports of the Baltic Sea region and in their neighborhoods. Each single operation, considered w.r.t. its hazardous aspect, will be defined as a point process consisting of undesired events (emergencies and/or accidents). Thus, the interdependence between these processes can be regarded as interaction between such events. The developed model will specify the impact of hazard related events occurring within one process on the risk of occurrence of such events in the other processes. This model will be a basis for the analysis of inter-process dependencies, including the feedback and cascading effects, as implied by the cause-effect relationships between the events occurring in different processes. Furthermore, it is envisaged to be used for assessing the potential effects of accidents or catastrophic events, and for developing the appropriate prevention measures. The procedures derived from the model will be applied to analyzing the mutual impacts between the processes realized in the oil and container terminals, forecasting negative effects of these impacts along with assessing their costs, and planning preventive actions aimed at avoiding such effects.

3

Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Index Based on Complex Plane and Its Realization

Xu X., Geng X., Wen Y.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2016

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Vol. 10, no. 2

251--256

EN

Ship collision risk index is the basic and important concept in the domain of ship collision avoidance. In this paper, the advantages and deficiencies of the various calculation methods of ship collision risk index are pointed out. Then the ship collision risk model based on complex plane, which can well make up for the deficiencies of the widely-used evaluation model proposed by Kearon.J and Liu ruru is proposed. On this basis, the calculation method of collision risk index under the encountering situation of multi-ships is constructed, then the three-dimensional image and spatial curve of the risk index are figured out. Finally, single chip microcomputer is used to realize the model. And attaching this single chip microcomputer to ARPA is helpful to the decision-making of the marine navigators.

4

A new Risk Evaluation Model for safety management on an entire ship route

Hwang S.J., Kobayashi E., Wakabayashi N., Im N.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2016

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Vol. 10, no. 1

93--98

EN

In this paper, we introduce a new risk evaluation model for evaluating the navigation safety zone for an entire ship route. This model considers a new algorithm to determine the navigational safety zone in real-time, and also takes the navigation officers’ perception while navigating a ship into consideration. The risk quantification has been developed using a questionnaire and incorporated into the new model. A simulation was carried out for the Osaka bay area in order to verify the usefulness of the proposed model. A new approach was employed to monitor the level of navigation safety along a ship route. The entire ship route is divided into small sections as a gridded matrix. The level of navigation safety can be quantified by means of a safety index on the basis of the ship’s navigation data within a specified distance range. The results show that the comparison between risks identified for different sections across the entire ship route is easy, which helps determine the navigational safety zone quickly. This model is expected to be able to serve as a new tool for managing safety throughout an entire ship route area in real-time in order to support the port safety authority or vessel traffic service center.

5

Korelacyjna estymacja ryzyka awarii w sieciach elektroenergetycznych

Kawecki M., Szkutnik J.

Przegląd Elektrotechniczny

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2009

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R. 85, nr 3

161-163

PL

W artykule rozważana jest estymacja ryzyka w sieciach elektroenergetycznych. Analiza została przeprowadzona dla rzeczywistego procesu przesyłu energii elektrycznej w RSE. Uzyskane rezultaty pozwalają na identyfikację klastrów sieci będących szczególnie podatnych na awarie, to tzw. korelacyjne klastry krytyczne. Na podstawie miar natężenia występujących w poszczególnych transformatorach, przeprowadzona zostanie ocena ryzyka dla wybranych korelacyjnych klastrów podkrytycznych.

EN

Correlation estimation of risk failure in the power network is taken into account. Correlation coefficient analysis will be carried out for the distributive power network 110 kV. Conducted analysis is based on the power factor. Proposed method allows to identify correlation critical and subcritical clusters, where correlation coefficient interval is considered as a risk for the process of energy supply.