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1 Security and Defence Quarterly

1 2015

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Knowledge development and horizon scanning for strategic longterm planning in cyber security

Göllner Johannes, Klerx Joachim, Mak Klaus

Security and Defence Quarterly

2015

Vol. 7, No. 2

5--21

Existing foresight studies produce expectations regarding mid-term and long-term expectations about the future. In particular, in the cyber domain, these expectations tend to change accidently, caused by disruptive events. For reliable long-term strategic planning it is necessary to understand the dynamics of these changes. Our horizon scanning method is developed to address social needs, as well as scientific capabilities and technical solutions and will produce reliable knowledge about analysing weak signals for threats, disruptive events and long-term trends. Transparent, public knowledge about long-term trends is very important for the efficiency of each strategic long term planning activity in all supply chain networks and in relation to domain cyber space. In the last few decades, the ICT infrastructure did become ubiquitous for all supply chain networks, for all critical infrastructures and, in particular, for knowledge management in these domains. Each stakeholder has their own expectations about future trends and behaves in accordance with these expectations. Misleading expectations can cause flawed investments and political strategies. This publication will present a method for semi-automatic knowledge creation and sharing to increase knowledge about future developments and future needs in the system. This knowledge can support long term capability planning, research agenda setting, innovation management and strategic long term planning in cyber security. However, it is in the core of foresight not to predict the future of cyber security, but to build it. Thus, knowledge development and horizon scanning are support actions for strategic planning activities.