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Reliability prediction analysis of catenary after icing based on Kriging model

Tian Jingjing, Hu Liguo, Wang Ying, Zhao Feng, Chen Xiaoqiang, Ge Leĳiao, Ma Aiping

Archives of Electrical Engineering

2025

Vol. 74, nr 3

567--582

In order to ensure the safety of the train, the reliability of the catenary system in icy weather must be analyzed. The Kriging model was used to predict and analyze the reliability changes of the catenary system under three different icing conditions: rime, mixed, rime and rime. The change in icing thickness of the contact line of a high-speed railway was selected as a representative of the icing change of the catenary, and the actual icing cross-section was converted into an ice-covered cross-section under the ideal state that was easy to calculate, and the relationship between icing quality and thickness was discussed. The catenary components that are more affected by ice and snow weather are selected, the reliability of the catenary system is quantified, and the fault tree is used to analyze and construct the relevant model parameters. Compared with other catenary system reliability analysis methods, the prediction function of the Kriging model can meet the requirements of the analysis and study of catenary reliability. Comparing the simulation results of the models under the three icing conditions, it is found that the change rate of catenary reliability in the hoarfrost, mixed rime and glaze ice states increases sequentially, and the catenary reliability changes the least and causes the least harm in the hoarfrost state. The catenary reliability changes the most in the glace ice state, and the harm caused is also the most serious. The research results can further provide a reference for the selection of catenary maintenance and de-icing methods in icy weather.