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Analysis of meteorological drought with different methods in the Black Sea region, Turkey

Simsek Oguz, Yildiz-Bozkurt Songul, Gumus Veysel

Acta Geophysica

2024

Vol. 72, no. 3

1927--1943

The evaluation and monitoring of drought, a complex disaster, are essential issues for the planning of agricultural activities and the operation and management of water resources. In this study, the meteorological drought of the Black Sea region in northern Turkey is evaluated with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) methods at 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales. Meteorological parameters obtained between 1965 and 2019 from 28 meteorological observation stations are used to analyze the drought. Drought-wet period percentages, percentages of occurrence of drought classes, critical period, and negative peak index values are investigated. As a result of the study, it is observed that the percentage of drought occurrence at all time scales is higher than 50% at two stations in the study region, which received precipitation above the average of Turkey. The sum of the extreme drought (ED) and severe drought (SD) values throughout the region is approximately 15% for the whole area. There is a high correlation coefficient, 97.8, 97.6, and 97.3 for the 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales, respectively, between the SPI and RDIst methods in the evaluation of meteorological drought in the Black Sea region, which is generally a rainy region. It is determined that with the increase in the time scale, the percentage of ED occurrence increased and the risk level of the region around RDI and 17089 station is the highest. It has been determined that the correlation between oscillation indices and meteorological drought indices for the Black Sea region is almost non-existent. The highest correlation value between the oscillation and meteorological drought indices in the region is obtained with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).