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The Consequences and Recurrence of Dangerous Occurrences in Air Transport in 1919-2018

Kozuba Jarosław, Sirko Stanisław, Pila Jan

Safety & Defense

2021

42--55

The paper presents statistical research results regarding the occurrence of which dangerous aviation events in 1919-2018. The source of the information about the events was the AviationSafetyNetwork website. With the use of Excel 2016 and Statistica v. 12 computer programs, five-time intervals were identified in which hazardous aviation incidents took place.Characterizing the distribution of these events in all periods, due to the technological advancement and capabilities of airplanes, the distribution of dangerous events in the last three periods was compared. The following tests were used to verify the statistical hypotheses: , Shapiro-Wilk, Brown-Forsythe, Kruskal-Wallis. When choosing the appropriate test, the following factors were taken into account: the type of measurement scale, the dependence/independence of samples, and their number. The standard significance level was assumed to be α = 0.05. The consequences and repeatability of aviation events in the identified time intervals were analyzed. The research questions that were posed were the following: in which seasons of the year, months, days of the month, and days of the week did the most dangerous events deaths occur? How often did dangerous events take place? Was the distribution of events similar in the identified periods? The results of the conducted research allowed to identify five periods in which hazardous events took place and demonstrate that in particular periods the distribution of hazardous air events in subsequent seasons, months, and days of the week was not the same.