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EN
The probabilistic methods of risk predictions, focused on the prognostic modeling of complex systems, and their pragmatic applications are proposed. They are based on an implementation of the proposed interconnected ideas about system analysis in life cycle. The approach includes description of the probabilistic models, optimization methods for rationale actions and incremental algorithms for solving the problems of supporting decisionmaking and rationale preventive actions in uncertainty conditions. A suitability of the proposed models and methods is demonstrated by examples which cover wide reliability and safety applications for some intellectual systems, enterprises of coal company, a floating oil and gas platform, a set of manufacturing processes of gas preparation equipment, the systems of oil&gas transportation and distribution. The approach means practically proactive commitment to excellence in uncertainty conditions.
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Content available remote Diagrams and design stories
EN
We present a theory of design stories that structurally distinguishes a "story" form other forms of documentation. We examine how design diagrams might convey such stories, and how an omplicit story can be made more explicit through diagrammatic cues and annotations. We develop these ideas in the context of a real -life design process. Members of the design team themselvs found it a challenge to recall the rationale for various decisions. We present a series of diagrams that discloses the underlying prograssion of ideas, and we show how this story may be too-opaquely packaged in the "final" diagram that the team produced.
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