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2 2020

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Impact of government policies on Sustainable Petroleum Supply Chain (SPSC): A case study – Part I (Models)

Ghahremanlou Davoud, Kubiak Wieslaw

Decision Making in Manufacturing and Services

2020

Vol. 14, no. 1

23--55

Environmental concerns and energy security have led governments to establish legislations to convert Conventional Petroleum Supply Chain (CPSC) to Sustainable Petroleum Supply Chain (SPSC). The United States (US), one of the biggest oil consumers in the world, has created regulations to manage ethanol production and consumption for the last half century. Though these regulations have created new opportunities, they have also added new burdens to the obligated parties. It is thus key for the government, the obligated parties, and related businesses to study the impact of the policies on the SPSC. We develop a two-stage stochastic programming model, General Model (GM), which incorporates Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2), Tax Credits, Tariffs, and Blend Wall (BW) to study the policy impact on the SPSC using cellulosic ethanol. The model, as any other general model available in the literature, makes it highly impractical to study the policy impact due to the model’s computational complexity. We use the GM to derive a Lean Model (LM) to study the impact by running computational experiments more efficiently and consequently by arriving at robust managerial insights much faster. We present a case study of the policy impact on the SPSC in the State of Nebraska using the LM in the accompanying part II (Ghahremanlou and Kubiak 2020).

Impact of government policies on Sustainable Petroleum Supply Chain (SPSC): A case study – Part II (The State of Nebraska)

Ghahremanlou Davoud, Kubiak Wieslaw

Decision Making in Manufacturing and Services

2020

Vol. 14, no. 1

57--80

The accompanying part I (Ghahremanlou and Kubiak 2020) developed the Lean Model (LM), a two-stage stochastic programming model which incorporates Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2), Tax Credits, Tariffs, and Blend Wall (BW), to study the policy impact on the Sustainable Petroleum Supply Chain (SPSC) using cellulosic ethanol. The model enables us to study the impact by running computational experiments more efficiently and consequently by arriving at robust managerial insights much faster. In this paper, we present a case study of the policy impact on the SPSC in the State of Nebraska using the model. The case study uses available real-life data. The study shows that increasing RFS2 does not impact the amount of ethanol blended with gasoline but it might lead to bankruptcy of the refineries. We recommend that the government consider increasing the BW because of its positive economic, environmental and social impacts. For the same reason, we recommend that the tax credit for blending the US produced ethanol with gasoline be at least 0:189 $/gal and the tariff for imported ethanol be at least 1:501 $/gal. These also make the State independent from foreign ethanol thereby enhancing its energy security. Finally, the change in policy impacts the SPSC itself, most importantly it influences the strategic decisions, however setting up a bio-refinery at York county and a blending site at Douglas county emerge as the most robust location decisions against the policy change in the study.