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The impact of Covid-19 on passenger shipping activities in selected EU countries: diagnosis and long-term scenarios

Barczak Agnieszka, Dembińska Izabela, Kauf Sabina

Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska

2025

z. 128

51--69

The article is devoted to the topic of passenger maritime transport in selected EU countries and the changes in the maritime passenger transport market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The implemented restrictions on movement entailed a voluntary and temporary suspension of the activities of tourist companies using the maritime fleet. With the above in mind, the purpose of this article was to identify the consequences of changes in the mobility behavior of the population as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic on the operation of passenger maritime transport. The differences in the number of seaborne passengers served in selected EU countries between actual and projected values were indicated. Long-term forecasts were also made, which made it possible to develop scenarios of possible events, describing the potential development directions of the branch. We use a combined forecast method based on a weighted average of individual forecasts (weights inversely proportional to mean percentage absolute error (MAPE)). We use such forecasting methods as Fourier spectral analysis, exponential smoothing models, and seasonality indices. We used time series models to build long-term forecasts. Combined forecasts for selected EU countries were determined. They were used to supplement long-term forecasts. This made it possible to assign the obtained results to ambient scenarios. Combined forecasts showed that in all quarters of 2020-2021, the number of passengers transported by sea transport was lower than forecast values in all EU countries analyzed. This confirms the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on this branch of transportation as well. Long-term forecasts, built on the basis of combined forecasts and assumptions about the annual growth rate of passenger numbers, indicate that in most of the countries analyzed, the most likely scenario is an annual increase of 10% in passenger numbers. This means that by 2026 only Germany and Denmark will see the number of maritime passengers return to pre-pandemic levels.