Autor zaprezentował tylko w zarysie podstawowe założenia metod badawczych stosowanych we wszelkich badaniach organizatorskich. Są one niestety mało znane, w związku z czym większość badań podejmowanych w naukach o zarządzaniu ma charakter płytki i niedokończony. Autorzy takich badań poprzestają na ogół tylko na zastosowaniu socjologicznych technik zbierania informacji takich jak ankieta, a przecież jest to dopiero połowa całego procesu badawczego. Brakuje im całej części analityczno-projektowej, którą silnie akcentuje prezentowana w opracowaniu metoda diagnostyczna.
EN
In the paper there is a sketch of a foundation for assumptions of research methods used in any organization research. The assumptions are not so well-known which effects in the fact that the most of organization research is not deep and not completed. The authors of such organization research used to apply only the sociological techniques, such as a survey technique. Nevertheless, it is not only a half of the whole research procedure. There is a lack of the analytical part and the design which are the elements of the presented diagnostic method.
A method of prediction of the effects of actions based on a comparative assessment of their possibilities is presented. The method is based on relative logic concepts. Formal models of causal relations based on hyper-relations and on graph theory are also used. The method is illustrated by a simple example.
The paper presents the results of computer simulations performed using the historical quotes on several securities (WIG20, S&P500, Dow Jones, DAX, EUR/USD, gold, oil, etc.) in order to analyse the possibility of finding such variables, that can be explained in terms of the others better, than the rest. It is assumed, that the ultimate goal of every investment strategy is finding the opportunity of gaining a financial profit (always considering the risk). Such opportunity is being sought by investigating the possibility of using each variable (each security) in turn as the one to be predicted. In order to reach that goal, authors use several variants of one of the algorithms belonging to the. Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), namely the combinatorial algorithm. The results reveal some interesting features of regression models, indicating the prospect of further applications of the method.
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