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A simple tool for evaluating the risks related to hazardous interactions between the processes realized in the Baltic Sea Region port areas

Malinowski J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2018

Vol. 9, No. 3

39--46

This paper is a continuation of [1] which presents a probabilistic model of hazard-related interactions between different operations carried out in a (generic) Baltic Sea Region port area. Each such operation, considering its hazardous aspect, is defined as a series of undesired events (emergencies and/or accidents) occurring at random instants, i.e. as a random process. An event can be primary (occurring by itself) or secondary (caused by another event in the same or another process). The processes interact in the sense that a primary event in one process can cause a cascade of events spanning multiple processes. In [1] the formulas were derived for the cause-effect probabilities expressing the impact of a single event on the occurrence of the ensuing events in the triggered cascade. Also, the formulas for risks of undesired events, using these probabilities, were obtained. As these formulas are complicated and difficult to implement numerically, the need arose to develop a simple tool for computing the considered risks. Such a tool, in the form of an easy-toimplement algorithm, along with an illustrative example is presented in the current work.

Modeling hazard-related interactions between the processes realized in and around the Baltic Sea Region ports

Malinowski J.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2017

Vol. 8, No. 1

87--96

This paper presents a probabilistic model of hazard-related interdependence between the operations carried out in the ports of the Baltic Sea region and in their neighborhoods. Each single operation, considered w.r.t. its hazardous aspect, will be defined as a point process consisting of undesired events (emergencies and/or accidents). Thus, the interdependence between these processes can be regarded as interaction between such events. The developed model will specify the impact of hazard related events occurring within one process on the risk of occurrence of such events in the other processes. This model will be a basis for the analysis of inter-process dependencies, including the feedback and cascading effects, as implied by the cause-effect relationships between the events occurring in different processes. Furthermore, it is envisaged to be used for assessing the potential effects of accidents or catastrophic events, and for developing the appropriate prevention measures. The procedures derived from the model will be applied to analyzing the mutual impacts between the processes realized in the oil and container terminals, forecasting negative effects of these impacts along with assessing their costs, and planning preventive actions aimed at avoiding such effects.