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1 Studia Geotechnica et Mechanica

1 2003

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Probabilistic prognosis of cliffslide along baltic sea coast in Poland

Brzozowski T., Tejchman A.

Studia Geotechnica et Mechanica

2003

Vol. 25, nr 1-2

135-144

In recent years, an increasing activity of sliding process in many parts of Polish cliff coast has been observed. It has created a serious danger for all structures located nearby. In order to explain the mechanisms governing sliding process as well as to elaborate calculation stability methods appropriate for these mechanisms, comprehensive investigations have been undertaken. Slope stability is usually analysed by means of deterministic approach. However, such methods are insufficient for determination of stability of cliffs and dangerous zones along the cliff coastline. In the paper, a probabilistic method of cliff sliding prognosis is presented. In the method proposed, soil strength parameters are assumed to be random values. Abrasive activity of a sea is simulated by changes of cliff profile. Numerical calculations based on the method allow verification of cliff stability and evaluation of the range of failure zone in the inland part of cliff.