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1 Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

1 2016

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Modelling climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards for port oil piping transportation system

Jakusik E., Kołowrocki K., Kuligowska E., Soszyńska-Budny J., Torbicki M.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2016

Vol. 7, No. 3

31--40

The climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area is considered and its states are defined. Further, the semi-Markov process is used to create a general probabilistic model of the climate-weather change process for the critical infrastructure operating area. To construct this model the vector of probabilities of the climate-weather change process staying at the initials climate-weather states, the matrix of probabilities of the climate-weather change process transitions between the climate-weather states, the matrix of conditional distribution functions and the matrix of conditional density functions of the climate-weather change process conditional sojourn times at the climate-weather states are defined. Preliminary applications of the proposed model to the climate-weather change process for the port oil transportation system operation area are presented.